Pahalgam Terror Attack and Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty | 24 Apr 2025

Source:IE 

Why in News?

The Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has approved a 5-point action plan against Pakistan following the deadly terrorist attack in Baisaran valley (Pahalgam), Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed the lives of 26 civilians. 

• The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy of banned Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack. 

What is the 5-Point Action Plan Announced by India After the Pahalgam Terror Attack? 

• Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty: India has suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) until Pakistan ceases its support for cross-border terrorism. 
  • It reflects a shift in India’s strategic calculus, using hydrological leverage as a pressure tool. 
• Closure of the Attari-Wagah Border Check Post: India has shut down the Integrated Check Post (ICP) at Attari, Punjab suspending all movement of people and goods. 
  • Only individuals who have crossed over with valid documents will be permitted to return by 1st May 2025. 
• Cancellation of SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistan: India has revoked the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Visa Exemption Scheme (SVES) for Pakistani nationals.  
  • All SVES visas already issued are considered void.  
• Expulsion of Pakistani Military Advisors: Pakistan’s Defence, Naval, and Air advisors in New Delhi have been declared persona non grata and must exit India. India will also withdraw its own advisors from Islamabad. 
• Reduction of Diplomatic Personnel: India will reduce the staff strength at its High Commission in Islamabad to 30, down from 55, by 1st May 2025. 
  • This marks a clear downgrade in diplomatic engagement, intended to freeze bilateral dialogue at the official level. 

What are the Potential Geopolitical Factors Behind Pakistan's Pahalgam Attack? 

• India’s Kashmir Policy: Pakistan views India's revocation of Article 370 in 2019 and Kashmir's integration as a challenge to its self-claimed sovereignty due to its illegal occupation over Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. 
  • Pakistan's increasing marginalization and India's success in stabilizing Kashmir may have pushed Pakistan to resort to violence to reassert its position in the region. 
• International Isolation: Pakistan’s traditional allies like the US, Gulf states, and even China are distancing themselves due to Islamabad’s declining reliability and returns. 
  • Additionally, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, Pakistan's strategic importance to the US has sharply declined, leaving it diplomatically isolated. 
• Economic Collapse: A crumbling economy, soaring inflation, and weak state institutions have left Pakistan increasingly unstable. 
  • Rising Baloch insurgency and persistent terror activities along Pakistan’s western front have made the country less appealing to foreign investors, worsening its economic troubles and hindering prospects for recovery. 
• Global Geopolitical Messaging: The timing of the Pahalgam attack, coinciding with PM Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia and the US Vice President’s trip to India, suggests Pakistan is asserting its regional power and signaling its continued influence in South Asia. 
  • Despite global condemnation, Pakistan may see international attention as an opportunity to re-engage diplomatically amid its growing isolation. 

What is the Significance of the Indus Waters Treaty? 

• Indus Waters Treaty: The IWT, signed in 1960 in Karachi after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan, was mediated by the World Bank. 
  • The treaty allocates the "Eastern Rivers" of the Indus system (Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej) to India for unrestricted use, while the "Western Rivers" (Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab) are reserved for Pakistan, effectively giving Pakistan access to about 80% of the total water.  
    • India is allowed limited non-consumptive uses of the Western Rivers, such as for navigation, agriculture, and hydroelectricity, subject to design and operational conditions under the treaty. 
  • IWT established a Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) to ensure annual dialogue and cooperation, and laid out a three-tier dispute resolution mechanism, including resolution at the PIC level, through a Neutral Expert (appointed by the World Bank or jointly by the India and Pakistan), or if needed, a Court of Arbitration. 
• Actions Regarding IWT: In 2023, India issued its first notice under the IWT, requesting modifications to the Treaty, focusing on the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects.  
  • Despite these projects being classified as "run-of-the-river" and intended to generate electricity without obstructing the natural river flow, Pakistan raised concerns, claiming they violate the IWT’s stipulations.  
  • India responded with another notice in 2024, seeking a review and modification of the IWT. 
    • Article XII (3) of the IWT allows for modifications to the Treaty through a duly ratified agreement between the two governments. 
• India’s Suspension of the IWT: India’s suspension marks the first suspension of the treaty since its inception, signaling a shift in water diplomacy linked to cross-border terrorism.  
  • Article 62 of the Vienna Convention allows a country to withdraw from or repudiate a treaty if there is a fundamental change in circumstances that makes the continuation of the treaty untenable. 
• Implications of IWT Suspension: 
  • India: Suspension of the IWT gives India greater flexibility in managing the Indus river system.  
    • India can now carry out reservoir flushing on projects like Kishanganga (Jhelum) without waiting for the peak monsoon period, as previously mandated by the treaty. This will help in increasing the life of the Kishenganga dam. 
    • India can fast-track hydroelectric projects on western rivers, bypassing design and operational restrictions, and halt Pakistani inspections at ongoing projects like Kishenganga and Ratle (on Chenab). 
    • However, the suspension won’t immediately affect Pakistan’s water supply, as India lacks the infrastructure to fully control or divert the flow at this stage. 
  • Pakistan: The suspension of the IWT threatens Pakistan's water security, as 80% of its cultivated land relies on these rivers.  
    • Disruption could impact food security, urban water supply, and power generation, while also causing economic instability due to the Indus system's contribution to 25% of Pakistan's GDP.  
    • India's ability to withhold river flow data further compounds Pakistan's vulnerability, hindering flood preparedness and water resource management. 
    • Pakistan may pursue arbitration, seek World Bank aid, and rally allies like China to negotiate favorable terms with India, but economic constraints may limit strong retaliation. 

What Should Be India’s Long-Term Strategy Toward Pakistan? 

• Strengthening Deterrence: India must maintain a strong military presence along the border, modernizing its forces with High Tech Border Surveillance System, and smart fencing.  
  • A credible deterrent, including robust border security, can prevent Pakistan from escalating tensions, particularly over Kashmir or potential military incursions 
• Utilizing UN Security Council: India should persist in highlighting Pakistan’s support for terrorist groups at the UN Security Council, emphasizing global condemnation.  
  • India should leverage Article 51 of the UN Charter, which calls for collective action against terrorism, to mobilize global support for greater sanctions on Pakistan. 
  • Additionally, India should advocate for Pakistan’s inclusion in the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist for its involvement in terror financing, to pressure Pakistan into compliance. 
• Internal Resilience and Social Cohesion: India must adopt a proactive counter-radicalization strategy, focusing on vulnerable border regions.  
  • This involves not just security measures, but also fostering unity through public awareness campaigns that emphasize peace, pluralism, and national cohesion.