From Crisis to Cooperation: India's Role in South Asia | 06 Aug 2024

The evolving geopolitical landscape in South Asia underscores the need for India to adapt its approach towards its neighboring countries with prudence and pragmatism. The recent upheaval in Bangladesh, resulting in the resignation of Prime Minister of Bangladesh and the Bangladesh Army's interim governance, highlights the volatility of regional politics and the imperative for India to support the democratic aspirations of its neighbors while maintaining strategic relationships. The parallels with Nepal's 2006 movement for multi-party democracy remind us that India's diplomatic stance should align with the popular will, fostering stability and positive engagement.

As regional dynamics continue to evolve, India's commitment to fostering peace, stability, and development in its neighborhood will not only secure its own strategic interests but also contribute to the broader goal of regional harmony and prosperity.

Why India's Neighbourhood is Facing Continuous Political and Economic Turmoil?

• Military Interference in Civilian Governance: Many countries in South Asia have a history of military coups and interventions, undermining democratic institutions.
  • Pakistan has experienced direct military rule for nearly half its existence since independence.
  • The 2021 military coup in Myanmar, where the military (Tatmadaw) seized power, detaining civilian leaders sparked widespread civil unrest.
  • In Bangladesh, the military has intervened multiple times, most notably in 2007-2008.
  • These interventions often lead to political instability, human rights violations, and economic disruptions.
• Economic Vulnerabilities and External Dependencies: Sri Lanka's economic crisis in 2022 is a stark example, with external debt reaching all time high.
  • Bangladesh's dependence on the garment industry which accounts for 80% of its exports, makes it vulnerable to global garment demand fluctuations.
  • The Maldives' tourism sector contributes about 28% to its GDP, exposing it to external shocks like the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused its economy to contract.
  • Pakistan's external debt stood at USD 130.6 billion by the end of 2022, with China holding about 30% of it, creating potential for economic leverage.
• Geopolitical Competitions and External Influences: China's investments in Pakistan’s infrastructure through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) have significantly increased Beijing's influence.
  • In Sri Lanka, the handover of Hambantota Port to China on a 99-year lease due to debt issues exemplifies how economic dependencies can translate into strategic concessions.
  • Nepal's balancing act between India and China is evident in infrastructure projects like the Pokhara International Airport, built with Chinese assistance.
• Climate Change and Environmental Challenges: The Maldives, with 80% of its land less than 1 meter above sea level, faces an existential threat from rising sea levels.
  • Bangladesh, according to the World Bank, could have 13.3 million internal climate migrants by 2050.
  • In 2022, Pakistan experienced catastrophic floods affecting millions of people and causing high economic loss.
  • Nepal's glaciers are retreating at rates of 10 to 60 meters per year, threatening water security for millions.
• Legacy of Colonial Structures and Fragile Institutions: The Radcliffe Line, hastily drawn in 1947, created numerous border disputes, including the ongoing India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir.
  • Bangladesh's creation in 1971 further exemplifies the instability of colonial borders.
  • According to the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index 2020, most South Asian countries fall into "flawed democracy" or "hybrid regime" categories, highlighting political instability rooted in fragile institutions.
• Demographic Pressures and Socio-Economic Disparities: India’s neighborhood has a significant youth population.
  • In Pakistan, approximately 64% of the population is under 30, creating significant pressure to generate jobs and prevent them from being drawn towards extremist ideologies.
  • Youth unemployment rates are high: 20.5% in Nepal (2022), 24.74% in Sri Lanka.

What are the Current Major Challenges that India Faces in its Neighborhood?

• Pakistan: The India-Pakistan relationship remains strained, with continued tensions over Kashmir and cross-border terrorism.
  • Recent developments include Pakistan's economic crisis, political instability and ongoing negotiations with the IMF.
  • The country's growing closeness to China through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor poses strategic challenges for India.
  • The recent terrorist attacks in the Reasi district of Jammu, allegedly sponsored by Pakistan, have exacerbated the issue.
• Bangladesh: Bangladesh is experiencing significant political upheaval with the current Prime Minister’s resignation amid protests.
  • This change could potentially affect the positive trajectory of India-Bangladesh relations developed over the past decade.
  • Key issues include managing shared water resources, particularly the Teesta River agreement, addressing illegal migration, and maintaining economic cooperation.
    • Concerns about illegal migration, particularly from Bangladesh, have long been raised by Indian states such as Assam.
    • In August 2024, a regional party expressed concern about an increase in immigration due to unrest in Bangladesh and unfenced stretches of the border.
    • There are apprehensions that the influx of illegal migrants could reduce the Assamese people to a minority in their own state, similar to what happened in Tripura and Sikkim.
    • The potential military rule in Bangladesh could exacerbate these issues, including increasing migration pressures and minority concerns.
• Nepal: Nepal's political landscape remains complex, with frequent changes in government affecting policy consistency.
  • The country's growing economic ties with China, including through the Belt and Road Initiative, are a concern for India.
  • Border disputes, particularly the Kalapani issue, continue to be a source of tension.
  • However, cultural and people-to-people ties remain strong, and there's potential for enhanced cooperation in hydropower and infrastructure development.
• Sri Lanka: Sri Lanka is slowly recovering from its severe economic crisis, with India playing a crucial role in providing economic assistance and India was the first country to hand-over its letter of support for financing and debt restructuring of Sri Lanka to the International Monetary Fund .
  • The Katchatheevu island issue and ill treatment of Tamil minorities and the implementation of the 13^th Amendment to Sri Lanka's Constitution continue to be important issues in bilateral relations.
• Maldives: The recent election of Pro-China President has led to a shift in Maldives' foreign policy, with calls for reducing Indian military presence in the country highlighted by the Indian-out Campaign.
  • This presents a challenge to India's strategic interests in the Indian Ocean region.
• Myanmar: The military coup in Myanmar and subsequent civil unrest have created complex challenges for India.
  • The Rohingya refugee influx into India's northeastern states and the potential for increased Chinese influence in a destabilized Myanmar are significant concerns.
  • While India has strategic and economic interests in Myanmar, including countering insurgency in its Northeast and implementing connectivity projects through its Act-East Policy, it must balance these with concerns over human rights and democracy.
• Bhutan: While India-Bhutan relations remain strong, Bhutan's efforts to diversify its foreign relations and reduce economic dependence on India present new dynamics.
  • The unresolved Doklam issue involving Bhutan, India, and China remains a strategic concern.
  • India continues to be Bhutan's principal development partner, but there's a need to update the relationship to reflect Bhutan's evolving aspirations.
• Afghanistan: The return of the Taliban to power has reshaped the geopolitical landscape, but India has managed to maintain cordial relations through humanitarian assistance and hosting the Afghanistan cricket team.
  • However, India's significant investments in Afghanistan's development remain at risk as its strategic influence has waned.

What Measures can India take to Enhance Relations with its Neighbors?

• Connectivity Catalyst-Bridging Borders, Building Bonds: India should accelerate its connectivity initiatives like the Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) Motor Vehicles Agreement and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway.
  • India could establish more Integrated Check Posts (ICPs) along its borders, similar to the successful ICPs with Nepal and Bangladesh.
  • Additionally, expanding digital connectivity through projects like the South Asian Satellite can foster regional integration.
  • These initiatives would position India as a facilitator of regional prosperity, countering the narrative of it being a regional hegemon.
• Economic Empowerment- From Aid to Trade: India should transition from an aid-centric approach to a trade and investment-focused strategy.
  • Implementing a Neighborhood First Economic Zone with preferential trade terms could stimulate regional economic integration.
  • Establishing joint economic zones, like the successful India-Bangladesh border haats, across other borders would boost local economies.
  • This approach would create mutual economic dependencies, reducing the appeal of adversarial policies among neighbors.
• Cultural Confluence-Soft Power Surge: Leveraging its rich cultural heritage, India should expand initiatives like the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) scholarships and establish more Indian cultural centers in neighboring countries.
  • Promoting cross-border tourism through initiatives like the Buddhist Circuit can enhance people-to-people connections.
  • India could also increase its capacity to host students from neighboring countries in its premier institutions.
  • Bollywood and India's other regional cinema could be strategically promoted to foster cultural understanding.
• Disaster Diplomacy-United in Adversity: Given the region's vulnerability to natural disasters, India should take the lead in establishing a South Asian Disaster Response Force.
  • This could involve shared early warning systems and coordinated response mechanisms.
  • India's expertise in space technology could be utilized to develop a regional satellite-based disaster management system.
  • This approach would position India as a responsible regional leader, fostering goodwill through practical assistance in times of crisis.
• Multilateral Mediation-Revitalizing Regional Forums: India should work towards reinvigorating SAARC focusing on non-controversial areas like climate change, public health, and education to build consensus.
  • Encouraging Track II diplomacy and think tank collaborations can help in resolving contentious issues.
  • By championing multilateralism, India can dispel fears of its dominance and create a more cooperative regional environment.
• Green Diplomacy- Eco-Allies: With climate change posing an existential threat to many countries in the region, India should spearhead a South Asian Green Alliance.
  • This could involve sharing clean technologies, joint research on climate-resilient agriculture, and coordinated positions in global climate negotiations.
  • India could offer its neighbors preferential access to its emerging green hydrogen and solar technology sectors.
  • This green diplomacy would position India as a responsible stakeholder in regional ecological security.
• Sports Solidarity-Uniting Through Athletic Endeavors: India could take the lead in reviving and expanding the South Asian Games, potentially including more sports and cultural events.
  • Establishing a South Asian Sports Development Fund could help improve sports infrastructure across the region.
  • India could offer its world-class training facilities and coaches to athletes from neighboring countries.
  • Organizing more bilateral and multilateral cricket series, given the sport's popularity in the region, could foster people-to-people connections.
  • This sports diplomacy would create positive engagement opportunities and showcase India's soft power.