EAC-PM Report on Domestic Migration

• 09 Jan 2025

For Prelims: Economic Advisory Council To The Prime Minister , 400 Million Dreams!, Internal Migration, Census, Census 2011 Construction, Manufacturing, Affordable Housing, Brain Drain,  Employment Opportunities, Social Security, Gender-Sensitive Policies, Social Welfare Schemes, Skill Development, Special Economic Zones (SEZs). 

For Mains: Significance, Cause and Impact of Migration Trends in India. 

Why in News? 

The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) released the report "400 Million Dreams!". 

• This groundbreaking analysis uses high-frequency, granular data to address gaps in understanding internal migration in India.  

About the Report 

• Title and Focus: The report, titled "400 Million Dreams!", examines the volume and patterns of domestic migration in India using novel datasets to provide updated insights beyond conventional data sources like the Census. 
• Agencies and Contributors: It is authored by Bibek Debroy, Chairman of the EAC-PM, and Devi Prasad Misra, an Indian Revenue Service officer. 
  • Released under the EAC-PM Working Paper Series, it reflects collaborative efforts to understand migration's socio-economic dimensions. 
• Period of Consideration: The study analyzes data from the post-2011 Census period, incorporating trends up to 2024, using high-frequency datasets to track inter-decennial migration patterns. 
• Data Sources: The report relies on three high-frequency datasets to bridge gaps in migration insights: 
  • Indian Railways UTS Data: Captures migration flows through unreserved ticket sales, representing affordable travel choices for blue-collar workers. 
  • TRAI Roaming Data: Tracks seasonal and temporary migration, providing insights into urban workforce fluctuations. 
  • District-Level Banking Statistics: Offers a glimpse into remittance inflows and financial impacts on origin regions. 

What are the Major Findings of the Report? 

• Decline in Migration Rates: Domestic migration rates in India have declined by 11.78% since the 2011 Census, reducing the migrant population to approximately 40 crore (400 million), constituting 28.88% of the total population. 
  • Improved living conditions and rising economic opportunities in rural areas are key factors contributing to this decline. 
• Additional Highlights from the Study: The estimated number of migrants in India as of 2023 is 40,20,90,396, approximately 11.78% lower than the Census 2011 figure of 45,57,87,621. The migration rate has dropped from 37.64% in 2011 to 28.88% in 2023. 
  • The decline in migration is hypothesized to result from improved access to education, healthcare, infrastructure, and economic opportunities in regions that were traditionally major sources of migration. 
• Spatial Dimensions: The second sentence highlights that over 75% of the predicted migration flows occur within a 500 km radius from the origin, which aligns with the concept of "gravitational effects" in migration. 
  • Major origin districts cluster around urban agglomerations like Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, and Kolkata. 
  • The gravitational effect in migration suggests that people are more likely to move to nearby locations due to factors like distance, economic opportunities, and social ties, similar to gravitational pull. 
• Changing Dynamics in Recipient States: The composition of the top five recipient states has changed, with West Bengal and Rajasthan emerging as new entrants, while Andhra Pradesh and Bihar have moved lower in rank. 
  • Even in these top states, the percentage of migrants has reduced, potentially indicating a broader spatial spread of migration. 
• Growth and Decline Trends: States like West Bengal, Rajasthan, and Karnataka have seen significant growth in their share of arriving migrants. 
  • Conversely, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh have experienced a decline in their percentage share of total migrants. 
• Key Migration Routes: State-level migration routes include Uttar Pradesh to Delhi, Gujarat to Maharashtra, Telangana to Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar to Delhi. 
  • District-level popular dyads are Murshidabad to Kolkata, Paschim Bardhaman to Howrah, Valsad to Mumbai, Chittoor to Bengaluru Urban, and Surat to Mumbai. 
• Seasonal Migration Insights: April-June (aligned with sowing/harvesting seasons) and November-December (festival and marriage season). 
  • Post-pandemic, even high months like April-May show 6.67% lower passenger levels compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2012. 
• Migration Distance: Over 75% of migration flows occur within 500 km of the origin, consistent with Ravenstein’s Theory of Human Migration, which emphasizes proximity in migration decisions. 
• Economic Drivers of Migration: Employment is a major driver, with 45 million people migrating for economic reasons, accounting for a significant portion of blue-collar workforce demand in urban hubs. 
  • Seasonal spikes in migration coincide with agricultural cycles and festivals, as shown by peaks in railway ticket sales and roaming SIM data. 
• Gender-Specific Trends: Male migrants dominate employment-related migration, while marriage remains the leading cause of female migration, especially in rural regions.  
  • A notable trend is the increasing participation of women in urban workforce migration, albeit limited by social constraints. 
• Economic Impact at Origin and Destination: Remittances strengthen rural economies, with districts in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar receiving the highest inflows. 
  • Banking data indicates a surge in savings and investments in high out-migration districts, reflecting improved financial literacy among migrant households. 
  • Urban areas witness a consistent supply of skilled and unskilled labor, aiding economic growth but creating infrastructure pressures. 

 

What are the Major Reasons for Migration Mentioned in the Report? 

• Employment Opportunities: The pursuit of better job prospects accounts for over 45 million migrants, with urban centers like Delhi NCR, Mumbai, and Bengaluru being key destinations. 
  • Migrants primarily fill gaps in labor-intensive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and domestic services. 
• Education: Migration for education remains significant, with cities like Delhi, Pune, and Chennai attracting students from smaller towns. 
  • The report highlights that access to higher education institutions often determines migration trends among youth. 
• Marriage: A leading cause of migration among women, accounting for over 50% of female migrations, especially in rural India. 
  • This migration often overlaps with economic migration as women integrate into workforce participation in destination areas. 
• Family Relocation: Movement due to household relocation constitutes a considerable portion, particularly among lower-income groups seeking better living standards. 
  • The report links this trend to expanding affordable housing schemes in urban areas. 
• Seasonal Factors: Temporary migrations for harvesting, sowing, and festival seasons are significant, especially in agricultural and industrial regions. 
  • High-frequency data from railways underscores these periodic spikes in movement. 

What are the Challenges Highlighted in the Report? 

• Data Limitations: Traditional datasets like the Census and irregular surveys are outdated by the time they are published, limiting their utility for real-time policy interventions. 
  • High-frequency datasets, while granular, often lack demographic details such as age, gender, and reason for migration. 
• Urban Infrastructure Strain: Cities with high in-migration, such as Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru, face challenges in providing adequate housing, transportation, and healthcare. 
  • Rapid urbanization leads to the development of slums and informal settlements, straining municipal resources. 
• Regional Disparities: Origin regions like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh face labor shortages, reduced agricultural productivity, and "brain drain" due to high out-migration. 
  • Development remains uneven, with destination states benefiting disproportionately from migration-driven economic contributions. 
• Gender Inequalities: Female migrants, often categorized as moving for "marriage," face challenges in accessing employment opportunities and social security in destination regions. 
  • The lack of gender-sensitive policies exacerbates vulnerabilities for women migrants. 
• Social Integration: Migrants often face discrimination and marginalization in destination cities, hindering social cohesion. 
  • Language barriers and cultural differences create challenges for assimilation into local communities. 
• Policy Gaps: Lack of portable social welfare schemes limits migrants' access to essential services when moving across states. 
  • Insufficient focus on secondary cities leads to overburdening of Tier-1 cities while neglecting smaller urban centers. 

Way Forward 

• Develop Real-Time Migration Tracking: Establish a centralized data platform to integrate railway, telecom, and banking data, enabling policymakers to track migration trends in real time. 
  • Regular updates and analytics-driven insights are essential for timely policy interventions. 
• Strengthen Urban Infrastructure: Invest in affordable housing, public transport, and healthcare in high in-migration states to accommodate rising urban populations. 
  • Expand social security networks to support migrants, especially those in informal sectors. 
• Enhance Opportunities in Origin Areas: Introduce rural employment schemes to reduce distress migration. 
  • Promote skill development programs tailored to regional industries to retain local labor. 
• Portable Benefits and Support Systems: Implement portable social welfare schemes, ensuring migrants retain access to healthcare, education, and ration benefits across state borders. 
  • Establish migrant support centers in urban areas to provide assistance with legal, financial, and social integration. 
• Gender-Sensitive Policies: Design initiatives to support women migrants, focusing on workforce participation and social security. 
  • Encourage employability training for women moving to urban centers. 
• Focus on Secondary Cities: Promote development in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities by creating incentives for industries to establish operations there. 
  • Develop special economic zones (SEZs) in smaller cities to balance migration flows.