Japan’s Shifting Diplomatic Posture | 01 May 2024

Source: IE

Why in News?

In the recent past of changing geopolitics, the world is witnessing a turning point as Japan, long a symbol of post-war pacifism, strengthens its military capabilities. This transformation has the potential to significantly alter the balance of power in Asia and beyond.

What are the Key Facts About the Japan’s Diplomatic Posture?

• Japan's Diplomatic Journey Before World War II:
  • Seclusion (1600s-1850s):
    • For over 200 years, Japan remained largely closed off from the world. This policy of isolation aimed to preserve social order and prevent foreign influence.
  • Catching Up (1850s-1900s):
    • The arrival of Portuguese Commodore Perry's "Black Ships" in 1853 forced Japan out of its self-imposed seclusion.The Japanese government aimed to:
      • They modernised the military and adopted Western technology to become a strong nation .
      • Japan renegotiated previous treaties to regain control of its trade and foreign policy.
  • Aggressive Stance (1900s-1930s):
    • Despite its victories, Japan wasn't treated as a full equal by Western powers, particularly regarding racial equality (e.g., rejection of the racial equality clause in the Treaty of Versailles).
    • This frustration with the West fueled a shift towards aggressive expansionism like the militaristic takeover of Manchuria in 1931, formed the Axis Alliance before World War II etc.
    • This sense of disrespect and a desire to challenge the Western-dominated world order ultimately led Japan down a path of militaristic conquest that culminated in World War II.
• Japan's Diplomatic Journey After World War II:
  • After the defeat of Japan in World War II, the United States led the Allies in the occupation and rehabilitation of the Japanese state. Thus, Japan embraced a policy of pacifism.
  • Military spending was strictly limited, and the nation focused on rebuilding its economy. This strategy proved wildly successful, propelling Japan to become the world's second-largest economy by the 1970s.
  • Over the recent decades, Japan has undergone a significant shift in its diplomatic posture, moving away from strict post-war pacifism and towards a more assertive role on the world stage.

What Factors led Japan to Change its Diplomatic Posture?

• External Factors:
  • China's Rise: China's growing military power and assertive claims in the East China Sea, particularly regarding disputed territories like the Senkaku Islands, have created a sense of urgency for Japan to strengthen its defences.
  • North Korean Threat: North Korea's continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles remains a major security concern for Japan.
  • Uncertain US Commitment: The perceived erosion of US commitment to Asian security under the Trump administration, along with the rise of isolationist tendencies in the US, has pushed Japan to become more self-reliant in its defence.
    • Examples include the failure of USA’s Middle East policy in maintaing peace.
• Internal Factors:
  • Conservative Resurgence: A growing number of conservative voices in Japan advocate for a more active security role and argue that Japan, as a "normal power," has a responsibility to contribute to regional stability and defend its interests.
  • Pacifist Fatigue: Decades of relying solely on the US for security have led some to question the sustainability of this approach, especially in the face of a changing regional landscape.

How is Japan Changing its Diplomatic Posture?

• Manifestations of Change:
  • Increased Defence Spending: Japan has significantly increased its defence budget, ending the self-imposed cap of 1% of GDP.
    • From 1960 to 2020, Japan’s military spending remained at or below 1% of GDP
  • Military Buildup: Japan is acquiring new military capabilities, including offensive weapons like cruise missiles, and easing restrictions on arms exports.
    • Prime Minister Kishida announced that Japan will increase annual defence spending to 2% of GDP by 2027.
  • Deeper Security Cooperation with the Allies: Japan is working closely with the US on joint military exercises and exploring deeper integration of command structures.
    • The Key Japan-US joint military exercises are Keen Sword, Orient Shield, and Valiant Shield (a ballistic missile defence-focused exercise).
    • The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) is a multinational initiative led by the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy to jointly develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter by 2035.
    • Also, Japan has decided to ease its strict defence export rules, allowing it to collaborate with Britain and Italy to build a next-generation fighter jet for export under certain conditions.
• Active Regional Diplomacy: Japan is strengthening its relationships with other regional powers like India and Australia, promoting a "free and open Indo-Pacific" vision.
  • Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD): A strategic security dialogue involving Japan, the US, India, and Australia to address regional security concerns.
  • Pacific Island Forum (PIF): Japan actively engages with Pacific Island nations, offering development assistance and fostering closer ties.
  • Support for Ukraine: Japan's strong stance in support of Ukraine against Russia is seen as a signal of its commitment to upholding international norms and deterring similar aggression in Asia.
• Shifting Stance on Historical Issues: Japan is attempting to reconcile with South Korea, a historical adversary, in an effort to create a more cohesive regional security architecture.

How Japan’s Changing Posture will Affect Indian Interest?

• Potential Benefits:
  • Countering China: Both India and Japan see China as a strategic concern. Japan's increased military capabilities and focus on the Indo-Pacific could strengthen the ability of both countries to deter Chinese aggression.
    • Both India and Japan are members of Quad grouping, G20 and G-4, International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER).
    • The India-Japan Act East Forum was established in 2017 which aims to provide a platform for India-Japan collaboration under the fabric of India’s “Act East Policy“ and Japan’s "Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy”.
  • Enhanced Security Cooperation: The new strategy emphasises cooperation with like-minded countries like India. This could lead to more joint military exercises, technology sharing, and potentially relaxed export restrictions on Japanese defence equipment for India.
    • Japan is one of the few countries with whom India has 2+2 ministerial dialogue.
    • India and Japan's defence forces also organise a series of bilateral exercises such as JIMEX (naval), Malabar exercise (Naval Exercise), ‘Veer Guardian’ and SHINYUU Maitri (Air Force), and Dharma Guardian (Army).
  • Infrastructure Development: The new Japanese Official Development Assistance (ODA) Loan framework for strategic purposes could provide India with much-needed funding for infrastructure projects in border areas with China. This would improve India's defence preparedness and connectivity.
    • India has been the largest recipient of the Japanese ODA Loan framework for the past decades.
    • Delhi Metro is one of the most successful examples of Japanese cooperation through the utilisation of ODA.
    • India’s Western Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC) project is funded by a soft loan provided by the Japan International Cooperation Agency.
  • Economic Cooperation: A stronger Japan could be a more reliable economic partner for India, potentially leading to increased trade and investment.
    • Japan’s bilateral trade with India totalled USD 20.57 billion during FY 2021-22. India was the 18th largest trading partner for Japan, and Japan was the 12th largest trading partner for India in 2020.
• Potential Challenges:
  • Competition: Both India and Japan are developing long-range strike capabilities. This could lead to an arms race in the region, potentially straining resources.
    • Competition between Japan and India to export defence equipment in common nature of market and allies like Africa, Philippines and South America might harm India's interests in the long run.
  • Diplomatic Challenges: It might become challenging for India to balance more assertive powers in competing blocks like the Quad grouping and BRICS.
  • Ideological Conflicts: Ideological conflicts may arise in areas such as human rights, nuclear proliferation, and international interventions, where India's stance can differ from Japanese stance.

Conclusion

• Japan's diplomatic shift has significant implications for Asia and the world. It will likely lead to a more multipolar regional order, with Japan playing a more prominent role in shaping security dynamics.
• The impact of Japan's dynamic posture on India depends on how effectively both countries manage the relationship. There's significant potential for increased security and economic cooperation, but challenges around competition, affordability, and strategic alignment need to be addressed for a mutually beneficial outcome.