India-China Disengagement along the LAC | 18 Sep 2024

Source: TH

Why in News?

Recently, India’s External Affairs Minister said that about 75% of the “disengagement problems” with China have been “sorted out” along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh.

• However, Demchok and Depsang plains have seen no progress towards their resolution in the past two years.

What are the Recent Developments on India-China Disengagement along the LAC?

• Verified Disengagement: Both India and China have mutually agreed on and verified disengagement from five friction points, including Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, and Gogra-Hot Springs.
  • However, Demchok and Depsang remain unresolved.
• Reasons for Disengagement: Recent high level diplomatic interactions has led to the disengagement along the LAC.
  • India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the meeting of BRICS NSAs in St Petersburg, Russia.
  • The recent optimism for further disengagement is linked to the upcoming BRICS Summit in October in Kazan, Russia, where leaders from both nations will meet.
• Significance of Disengagement: The 31st meeting of Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) was described as “frank, constructive, and forward-looking,” and urged parties to “narrow down the differences” and “find early resolution of the outstanding issues”.
  
  • The expression “narrow down the differences” had been used for the first time in the bilateral talks on the border standoff and indicated hope for further disengagement.
• Challenges in Disengagement:
  
  • Stalled Negotiations: Despite multiple rounds of talks, agreements on Demchok and Depsang have not materialised.
  • Military Build-Up: Both India and China have continued significant infrastructure development and troop deployments along the 3,488 km-long LAC.
    • Both nations have approximately 50,000-60,000 troops stationed along the LAC.
  • Vulnerable to Escalation: China’s massive build-up of infrastructure and new weaponry has fundamentally altered the status quo. India has responded with similar infrastructure and capability enhancements.
    • It may lead to a military escalation in case of any miscalculation.

What is the Strategic Significance of Depsang Plains and Demchok?

• Depsang Plains: The Depsang Plains is a strategically important territory, because the PLA’s control threatens India’s control over the Siachen Glacier, encircling the Indian Army from both China and Pakistan. 
  • A two-pronged attack by China and Pakistan will leave India’s military position on the Siachen Glacier highly vulnerable.
  • It is identified as the most vulnerable region in Ladakh by the Indian Army due to its flat terrain, which is suitable for mechanised warfare and provides direct access to Aksai Chin.
• Demchok: Demchok allows for effective surveillance of Chinese movements and activities in the Aksai Chin region. 
  • It supports road and communication links that are essential for rapid military mobilisation and logistical support.

What are the Key Areas in the India-China Standoff?

• Pangong Lake Region: This region frequently witnesses cross-paths between patrols of India and China.
  
  • The north bank of the lake is divided into 8 fingers. India has claimed its territory till Finger 8 and China disputes its claims till Finger 4.
    • The mountain spurs jutting into the lake are referred to as 'Fingers' in military parlance. 
• Demchok Region: It reported Chinese activity and heavy equipment movement in the region.
• Galwan River Basin: Satellite images showed Chinese tents near the road close to the Galwan River basin, indicating Chinese incursions into areas traditionally held by Indian forces. 
• Gogra Post:  Chinese military build-up near the Gogra post heightened the tensions.
• Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO): Chinese encroached in the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) sector lying on the Indian side. 
  • The DBO airstrip, crucial for winter operations and reinforcements, is accessible by the 255 km-long Darbuk-Shyok-DBO road for India. 

What triggered China’s Aggression Along LAC?

• Infrastructure Sensitivity: China’s aggressive stance might be driven by India’s recent infrastructure developments, which could be perceived as a threat or a move to pre-emptively counter India’s strategic improvements.
• Element of Coercion: China’s actions might be intended to exert pressure on India. 
  • Historically, the red lines for both nations were well-defined, but current multiple intrusions suggest a strategy to test and pressurise India.
• Wolf-Warrior Diplomacy: China's aggressive diplomatic stance, known as "wolf-warrior diplomacy," might be mirrored in their military approach along the LAC.
  • It is a confrontational form of public diplomacy adopted by Chinese diplomats.
• Leverage Tactics: The activation of border areas might be part of China's broader strategy to gain leverage over India in bilateral relations and other issues like G20 and BRICS.
• Economic and Diplomatic Pressures: China’s actions could be influenced by the need to demonstrate strength amid economic difficulties and strained international relations due to the Covid-19 pandemic and its origin in Wuhan.

What can be done to manage the China-India Border Dispute?

• Clarification of LAC: Efforts should resume to clarify the LAC. It will avoid potential clashes in overlapping claim areas.
• Buffer Zones: Consider making existing buffer zones permanent and creating new ones in areas with frequent standoffs. Both sides should be willing to defend these buffer zones to their domestic audiences.
• Abiding by Agreements: Continue to adhere to existing bilateral agreements, including bans on firearms, and make joint public statements to reaffirm commitments.
• No-Patrol Zones: Establish no-patrol zones in frequently contested areas.
• Drones Usage: Agree on parameters for the use of drones for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
• Mutual Security Agreement: Attempt to reach an understanding on acceptable levels of forces, arms, and facilities near the border based on the “principle of mutual and equal security.”
• Impact of Third-Party Relations: Both sides should be sensitive to how their relations with third parties (e.g., US for India, Pakistan for China) might influence the other’s perceptions and actions.

Conclusion

The China-India border dispute, rooted in colonial-era decisions, has intensified due to rising nationalism and state assertiveness. The 2020 Ladakh clashes worsened relations, leading to a state of "armed coexistence" marked by mutual distrust and military buildup. To maintain peace, India and China must enhance engagement rules, establish stronger buffer zones, and improve communication between top brass. Strategic competition complicates a comprehensive border agreement, making high-level dialogue essential.