Decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate

• 25 Jan 2025

For Prelims: Total Fertility Rate, Internal migration, National Family Health Survey, Dependency ratio, Middle-income trap, In vitro fertilization, Surrogacy, Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0, Replacement Level 

For Mains: Demographic Transition and Population Growth in India, Impacts of Declining Fertility Rates, Government Policies for Population Control and Reproductive Health, Aging Population and Economic Sustainability 

Source: TH 

Why in News?  

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 has revealed a steep decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) over the decades. 

• This raises concerns about socio-economic and political repercussions, particularly in southern states. 

What are the Key Findings  of the Study? 

• India’s Fertility Trends: India’s TFR dropped from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021, below the replacement level of 2.1. 
  • By 2100, the TFR in India is projected to fall further to 1.04 (barely one child per woman). 
• Regional Variations in India: Southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka achieved replacement-level fertility earlier than northern states.  
  • By 2036, Kerala’s aged population is expected to surpass children (23%). High labor wages, quality of life, and internal migration are expected to bring migrant labor to 60 lakh by 2030 (about one-sixth of the State’s population).  
  • The demographic shift was driven by high literacy, women’s empowerment, and advances in social and health sectors. 
• Reasons for Fertility Decline:  
  • Socio-Economic and Cultural Factors: India has one of the oldest birth control/family planning programs, but factors like female literacy, workforce participation, and women’s empowerment have had a greater influence on fertility decline. 
    • Changing attitudes toward marriage and reproduction, including delays or avoidance of marriage and motherhood, played a significant role. 
  • Health and Migration Issues: Increasing cases of infertility in both men and women contribute to the decline. 
    • The availability and social acceptance of abortions have likely contributed to the falling fertility rates. 
    • More young people are moving abroad for education and jobs, settling there, which reduces fertility rates in India. 

Total Fertility Rate and Replacement Level 

• Total Fertility Rate (TFR): The TFR is the average number of children a group of women would have by the end of their reproductive years (ages 15 to 49) if they followed the current fertility rates throughout their lives, assuming no mortality. It is expressed as children per woman. 
  • As per the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) (2019-21), the TFR has declined to 2.0 children per woman from 2.2 children per woman (NFHS- 4 (2015-16). 
• Replacement Level: A TFR of 2.1 is considered the replacement level, where each generation replaces itself without significant population growth or decline. 
  • A TFR lower than 2.1, however, can lead to negative population growth, potentially causing long-term demographic challenges, including an ageing population  

What are the Consequences of Low Fertility Rates? 

• Aging Populations: With fewer births and longer life expectancy, the population is aging rapidly.  
  • India currently has 149 million people aged 60 years or above, comprising 10.5% of the total population. By 2050, this number is expected to surge to 347 million, or 20.8% of the population.  
• Economic Impact: A shrinking young workforce and a growing elderly population lead  to higher dependency ratios and strain social welfare and healthcare systems.  
  • The rising costs of pensions and elder care will burden both governments and families. 
  • Unlike developed nations that experienced population ageing with higher per capita incomes, India faces the challenge of ageing without the same economic luxury. 
  • India risks getting caught in the middle-income trap if its economy cannot sustain rapid growth. 
• Impact on Labour Market: The decline in fertility could reduce the size of the workforce, negatively impacting productivity.

Global Approaches in Tackling Declining Fertility Levels 

• Germany: Liberal labor laws, parental leave, and benefits have seen success in increasing birth rates. 
• Denmark: Offers state-funded in vitro fertilization (IVF)  treatments for women below 40 years of age. 
• Russia and Poland: Russia provides one-time financial incentives for families with more children, and Poland offers cash payments for families with multiple children.

Way Forward

• Policy Adjustments:  India can emulate Germany and Denmark by adopting flexible labor policies, and parental benefits to improve work-life balance, and contribute to increasing fertility rates by supporting working parents. 
  • Raising a child costs Rs. 30 lakhs to Rs. 1.2 crores, deterring many middle-class families. To address this, make education affordable, upgrade public institutions with digital and practical learning to avoid skill mismatch, offer subsidies, and tax benefits. 
  • Policymakers must ensure economic growth while supporting an ageing population, or the demographic dividend could turn into a disaster. 
• Focus on Health and Nutrition: Addressing nutritional needs and healthcare for mothers and children through the Saksham Anganwadi and Poshan 2.0 schemes, along with promoting childcare institutions for well-being, and prenatal trauma support, is crucial. 
  • Expanding initiatives like Telangana's distribution of pregnancy kits to support maternal health can aid in improving fertility rates across India. 
• Reproductive Support: Provide affordable IVF and promote Surrogacy to increase child ratios without impacting career advancements.

Drishti Mains Question: 

Analyze the impact of declining fertility rates on India’s socio-economic structure. What policy measures can be implemented to reverse this trend? 

UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs) 

Q1. ‘’Empowering women is the key to control the population growth.’’ Discuss. (2019) 

Q2. Critically examine the effect of globalization on the aged population in India. (2013) 

Q3. Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. (2021)