India’s Demographic Transition

For Prelims: Demographic dividend, United Nations Population Fund, Support ratio, Demographic transition, Replacement  rate 

For Mains: Demographic Dividend and its economic implications, India’s demographic transition,Silver economy 

Source: BS 

Why in News?  

A report by McKinsey & Company highlights that India has only 33 years left to leverage its demographic dividend before transitioning into an “aged” economy (silver economy) akin to developed nations by the 2050s.  

• The report also highlights slower growth, rising dependency, and fiscal pressures as India's working-age population declines relative to its elderly. 

 Note: According to the United Nations Population Fund, Demographic dividend is the economic growth potential when a country's working-age population (15-64 years) exceeds the dependent population (children and elderly), creating a "window of opportunity" for increased productivity and economic output. 

• India entered the demographic dividend opportunity window in 2005-06 and will remain there until 2055-56, according to the Economic Survey 2018-19. 

 

What are the Key Highlights of the Report on India’s Demographic Transition? 

• Declining Support Ratio: India has 33 years until it reaches the same aging status as advanced economies by the 2050s. 
  • India’s support ratio (working-age individuals per senior aged 65 or older) has declined from 14:1 in 1997 to 10:1 in 2023 and is projected to drop further to 4.6:1 by 2050 and 1.9:1 by 2100, reaching levels seen in advanced economies like Japan. 
• Rising Pressure on Public Finances: By 2050, seniors will account for 15% of total consumption, up from 8% today. 
  • An increasing elderly population will strain pensions, public healthcare, and family resources. 
  • India’s share in global consumption is projected to rise from 9% today to 16% by 2050. 
• Low Labour Market and Productivity: India's labor force participation, particularly among women, remains low and is a major area for improvement. 
  • Worker productivity in India is USD 9 per hour, significantly lower than the USD 60 per hour average in high-income countries. 
• Birth Rate Decline: The global decline in birth rates is severe, affecting both emerging like India and advanced economies. 
  • This demographic trend will have wide-ranging impacts on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, labor markets, pension systems, and consumer behavior. 
• Recommendations: Increase labor force participation, particularly for women, to maximize the demographic dividend. 
  • To boost worker productivity, India must focus on technological adoption, foster innovation, and make strategic investments in infrastructure, education, and skill development. 
  • Prepare for a demographic shift by strengthening public finances and social support systems to address the needs of a growing elderly population. 

 What is Demographic Transition? 

• About: Demographic transition is a model that describes the changes in birth and death rates, along with shifts in population age structure, as societies develop economically and technologically. It typically involves several stages. 
  • Stage 1: High birth and death rates result in a stable population. 
  • Stage 2: Death rates decline due to improvements in healthcare, sanitation, and food production, while birth rates remain high. This leads to rapid population growth. 
  • Stage 3: Birth rates begin to fall, slowing population growth. Factors include urbanization, lower child mortality, access to contraception, and societal shifts favoring smaller families. 
  • Stage 4: Both birth and death rates are low, leading to a stable or aging population. This stage reflects higher living standards, advanced technology, and societal development. 

       

• India’s Demography: As per the 2011 Census, India is in stage three of the four stage model of demographic transition, moving from high to low mortality and fertility rates. 
  • India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) stands at 2.0 as per National Family Health Survey-5 (2019–21), below the replacement rate of 2.1. 
    • TFR is the average number of children a woman would have based on current fertility patterns throughout her reproductive years (15-49).  
    • The replacement  rate of fertility is the average number of children per woman needed to keep a population stable, in the absence of migration. 
  • The World Population Prospects 2024 report by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), projects India’s population to peak at 1.7 billion in the early 2060s and decline by 12% thereafter, while remaining the world’s most populous country. 

Malthusian Theory of Population 

• The Malthusian Theory of Population, proposed by Thomas Malthus, English economist in 1798, suggests that population grows exponentially, while food production increases arithmetically.  
  • This imbalance leads to overpopulation, resulting in famine, disease, and mortality, which would eventually reduce the population.  
  • Malthus identified "preventive checks" (e.g., delayed marriage) and "positive checks" (e.g., famine and disease) as ways to control population growth.  
  • While influential, the theory has been criticized for underestimating technological advancements and human adaptability. 

What are the Challenges of the Aging population in India? 

• Declining Workforce Participation: With a decreasing proportion of working-age individuals, India’s economic growth could slow significantly. 
  • For example, Japan, with 27% of its population over 65, faces labor shortages and strained social security. Sluggish growth and stagnating wages have led to reduced household spending. 
• Healthcare System Strain: Older populations typically experience higher rates of chronic illnesses, putting additional strain on India’s already stretched healthcare system.  
  • A surge in healthcare needs, without adequate infrastructure, could exacerbate health disparities and reduce the quality of life for the elderly. 
• Lower productivity and innovation: An aging population may lead to reduced economic activity and innovation. 
• Impact on Family Structures:  With rising urbanization and nuclear families, the burden of eldercare on working-age adults may cause economic and emotional strain. An increasing dependency ratio could further strain social and economic resources. 

 Way Forward 

• Skill Development of Aging Workforce: Investing in education and training programs to equip the aging workforce with skills essential for the 21^st-century economy, such as digital literacy, creativity and innovation, and technological proficiency. 
• Healthcare Infrastructure: Strengthening public healthcare systems to provide quality and affordable healthcare for the elderly. 
• Financial Inclusion: Ensuring financial security for the elderly through accessible and affordable pension schemes, social security programs, and financial literacy initiatives. 
• Innovation and Productivity Growth: Investing in research and development, promoting entrepreneurship, and leveraging technology to enhance productivity and address labor shortages. 
• Intergenerational Inclusion: Fostering intergenerational dialogue and social inclusion to address the concerns of both the young and the elderly. 
• Addressing Demographic Dividend: India's demographic dividend is hindered by poor education, gender inequality, skill mismatches, and jobless growth from the informal economy, with a 134th 2023- 24 Human Development Index ranking. 
  • Addressing these challenges through improved education, healthcare, and  increased female workforce participation is crucial.  

Drishti Mains Question: 

What are the potential consequences of India becoming an ‘aged’ economy before achieving full economic development? 

 UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs) 

Prelims: 

Q. To obtain full benefits of demographic dividend, what should India do? (2013)

(a) Promoting skill development 

(b) Introducing more social security schemes 

(c) Reducing infant mortality rate 

(d) Privatization of higher education 

Ans: (a) 

Q. Consider the following specific stages of demographic transition associated with economic development: (2012)

1. Low birthrate with low death rate 
2. High birthrate with high death rate 
3. High birthrate with low death rate 

Select the correct order of the above stages using the codes given below: 

(a) 1, 2, 3  

(b) 2, 1, 3 

(c) 2, 3, 1  

(d) 3, 2, 1 

Ans: (c) 

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Mains: 

Q. “Demographic Dividend in India will remain only theoretical unless our manpower becomes more educated, aware, skilled and creative.” What measures have been taken by the government to enhance the capacity of our population to be more productive and employable? (2016)

Q. “While we flaunt India’s demographic dividend, we ignore the dropping rates of employability.” What are we missing while doing so? Where will the jobs that India desperately needs come from? Explain. ? (2014) 

Deccan Volcanism and Movement of Indian Plate

For Prelims: Tropical Flora, Volcanism, Indian Plate, Mass Extinctions, ITCZ, Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) Mass Extinction, Tropical Rainforests, Equator, Volcanic Plateau, Mantle Plume, Volcanic Hotspots, Réunion Hotspot, Gondwanaland, Tethys Sea, Himalayan Mountain, Monsoon. 

For Mains: Movement of Indian Plate and its impacts on deccan plateau, Volcanism. 

Source: PIB 

Why in News? 

A new study revealed that tropical flora showed significant resilience during the Deccan Volcanism on Indian Plate while causing mass extinctions of fauna. 

• Mass extinctions are catastrophic events causing rapid biodiversity loss, often triggered by climate changes, asteroid impacts, or massive volcanic eruptions. 

What are the Key Findings of the Study? 

• Impact on Fauna and Flora: Deccan Volcanism caused mass extinctions of dinosaurs and other fauna, along with gymnosperms. 
  • However, it supported hyper-diverse tropical flora by creating fertile, undisturbed habitats for angiosperms, rather than leading to floral extinction. 
  • A warm, humid climate during volcanic inactivity and the movement of the Indian Plate through the equator helped floral diversity. 
• Global and Regional Implications: Deccan volcanism was identified as a contributing factor to the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) mass extinction (66 million years ago) that culminated in ammonoid (invertebrate cephalopods) and dinosaurs on the global scale.  
  • However, tropical rainforests in the Indian Plate region adapted and thrived, indicating higher resilience of tropical flora to climatic stresses.  

•  Tropical Flora: Tropical flora refers to the plant species that thrive in tropical regions (between 23.5° North and 23.5° South latitude) of the world, which are typically characterized by warm temperatures and high humidity year-round. 

• These regions are found near the equator, between the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. 
• E.g., Mahogany tree, Orchids, Coconut palms etc. 

• Gymnosperms: Gymnosperms produce seeds that are not enclosed within an ovary (naked needs) but are exposed, often on cone-like structures. They are among the oldest and most primitive plants. 
• Angiosperms: They are a group of plants that produce seeds enclosed within a fruit. After fertilization, the ovary of the flower develops into a fruit that contains seeds. 

 

What is Deccan Volcanism Theory? 

• About: It suggests that the volcanic eruptions leading to the formation of Deccan Traps played a key role in the mass extinction event that occurred approximately 66 million years ago.  
  • The Deccan Traps are a large volcanic plateau in peninsular India, formed by fissure volcanic eruptions. 
  • Fissure volcanic eruptions occur when magma erupts through long cracks or fissures, rather than through a central vent of a volcano.  
• Formation: Deccan Traps are believed to have been formed by intense volcanic activity caused by the Deccan mantle plume. The volcanic activity continued for several hundred thousand years. 
  • A mantle plume is a cylindrical upwelling of hot magma from the Earth's mantle, responsible for volcanic hotspots not linked to plate boundaries. 
  • Presently, Deccan Traps consist of vast layers of basaltic lava flows, formed by large volcanic eruptions. 
• Connection with Indian Plate Movement: India was a large island situated off the Australian coast. India is supposed to have started her northward journey about 200 million years ago. 
  • Beneath the Indian Plate, the Réunion hotspot is a mantle plume of hot, molten rock from the Earth's interior. As the Indian Plate moved over the Réunion hotspot, fissure volcanic eruptions formed the Deccan Traps. 
    • The Réunion hotspot is a volcanic hotspot located in the Indian Ocean, near the island of Réunion (a French overseas region). 

Economic Significance of Deccan Volcanism 

• Major Rocks: Basalt is found in the Deccan Traps, and granite and gneiss is common in southern India, especially Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. 
• Mineral Resources: Iron ore is abundant in Karnataka, and bauxite is found in the Eastern Ghats. 
• Agriculture: It supports cotton and tobacco due to the presence of Black soil. 
  • Black soil was formed from the weathering of volcanic rocks, particularly basalt, which is rich in minerals like iron, magnesium, calcium, and potassium. 

Note: The Deccan Traps cover significant parts of South India, including large areas of Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu, with smaller extensions into Telangana and Kerala. 

What are the Key Points on the Movement of the Indian Plate? 

• Breaking of Gondwanaland: The Indian Plate was part of Gondwanaland along with South America, Africa, Arabia, Madagascar, Australia, and Antarctica in the Late Palaeozoic Era which began breaking apart in the Late Triassic (~215 Ma) period. 
• The Tethys Sea separated India from the Eurasian plate till about 225 million years ago. 

 

• Separation and Drifting: India separated from Africa in the Middle Jurassic (~165-150 Ma) and from Antarctica-Australia in the Early Cretaceous (~130-120 Ma).  
  • The Indo-Madagascar block split from Antarctica-Australia around 130-120 Ma, and the Seychelles separated from India around the Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary (~66 Ma). 
• Rifting and Mantle Plumes: Mantle plumes played a crucial role in the rifting and drifting of the Indian plate, with significant basaltic volcanic eruptions.  
  • E.g., Reunion mantle plume separated the Indian plate from Seychelles, forming the Deccan traps.  
• Collision with Asia: The Indian plate collided with the Asian plate during the Eocene (~50-35 Ma ago), forming the Himalayan mountain range and uplifting the Tibetan Plateau.  
  • As the Indian plate collided with Eurasian plate, the Tethyan Sea was closed. 
• Geological Impact: The India-Asia collision is a hard continent-continent collision that resulted in the formation of the biggest and youngest fold mountain belt of the world known as Himalaya. 
  • It significantly altered the global climate and established a distinct monsoon system for the Indian subcontinent. 
  • Continent-continent collision occurs when two continental plates collide, forming large mountain ranges as both plates are too buoyant to sink into the mantle. 

 

Conclusion 

The study highlights the resilience of tropical flora during the Deccan Volcanism, which led to mass extinctions of fauna but fostered diverse tropical ecosystems. The Indian Plate's movement, combined with volcanic activity, played a significant role in shaping global biodiversity and the Earth's climate. 

 Drishti Mains Question: 

Analyze the impact of the Indian Plate's movement on global biodiversity and climate.

UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs) 

Prelims 

Q. The term “sixth mass extinction/sixth extinction” is often mentioned in the news in the context of the discussion of (2018)

(a) Widespread monoculture practices in agriculture and large-scale commercial farming with indiscriminate use of chemicals in many parts of the world that may result in the loss of good native ecosystems. 

(b) Fears of a possible collision of a meteorite with the Earth in the near future in the manner it happened 65 million years ago that caused the mass extinction of many species including those of dinosaurs. 

(c) Large scale cultivation of genetically modified crops in many parts of the world and promoting their cultivation in other parts of the world which may cause the disappearance of good native crop plants and the loss of food biodiversity. 

(d) Mankind’s over-exploitation/misuse of natural resources, fragmentation/loss of natural habitats, destruction of ecosystems, pollution and global climate change. 

Ans: (d) 

Q. The black cotton soil of India has been formed due to the weathering of (2021)

(a) brown forest soil 

(b) fissure volcanic rock 

(c) granite and schist 

(d) shale and limestone 

Ans: (b) 

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 Mains 

Q.Discuss the geophysical characteristics of Circum-Pacific Zone. (2020) 

Q.Define mantle plume and explain its role in plate tectonics. (2018) 

Q. Explain the formation of thousands of islands in Indonesian and Philippines archipelagos. (2014)

Lokpal Foundation Day

For Prelims: Lokpal, Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013, Prevention of Corruption Act, 1988, Central Vigilance Commission (CVC), United Nations Convention Against Corruption (UNCAC), Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), Second Administrative Reforms Commission (ARC), Transparency International, Public Accounts Committee (PAC), Enforcement Directorate (ED).  

For Mains: Role and significance of Lokpal in anti-corruption framework, Strengthening of Lokpal.  

Source: TH 

Why in News? 

On 16^th January 2025, social activist Anna Hazare, Justice (retd) N. Santosh Hegde, and Attorney-General R. Venkataramani will be felicitated on the occasion of Lokpal Foundation Day.  

• The Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013, which empowers the anti-corruption body to investigate allegations of corruption, came into effect on 16th January 2014. 

Note: The first Lokpal Day will be celebrated on 16^th January 2025 in Delhi Cantt, with the Chief Justice of India (CJI) as the Chief Guest. 

What is Lokpal? 

• About: Lokpal is an independent statutory body established under the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013, to combat corruption in public offices and ensure accountability among public functionaries. 
  • They perform the function of an "ombudsman” and inquire into allegations of corruption against certain public functionaries and for related matters. 
  • The Act also provided for the establishment of Lokayukta for States. 
• Origin: The concept of the Lokpal/Lokayukta originates from the Ombudsman system in Scandinavian countries. 
  • In India, the Administrative Reforms Commission (1966-70) recommended the establishment of the Lokpal at the central level and Lokayuktas in the states. 
  • Prior to the enactment of the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013, several states had already created the Lokayukta institution through state laws. 
    • Maharashtra was first in this respect with its Lokayukta body established in 1971. 
• Salary and Allowances: The Chairperson's salary and allowances are equivalent to those of the Chief Justice of India, while the Members receive benefits similar to those of a Judge of the Supreme Court of India. 
• Proceeding of Lokpal: 
  • On receiving a complaint, the Lokpal may initiate a preliminary inquiry through its Inquiry Wing or refer cases to agencies like the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) or Central Vigilance Commission (CVC). 
  • The CVC reports back to Lokpal for Groups A and B officials, while it takes independent action for Groups C and D under the CVC Act, 2003. 

  

Lokayukta 

• About: It is a state-level anti-corruption authority in India, established to investigate grievances and allegations against public servants. 
• Appointment:The Governor appoints the Lokayukta and Upalokayukta after consulting Chief Justice of the State High Court and the Leader of the Opposition in the State Legislative Assembly. 
• Tenure: In most states, the Lokayukta serves a 5-year term or until reaching 65 years of age, whichever is earlier.  
  • Reappointment is not allowed. 
• Removal; Once appointed, a Lokayukta cannot be dismissed or transferred by the government and can only be removed through an impeachment motion passed by the state assembly. 

What is the Significance of the Institution of Lokpal? 

• Combating Corruption: The Lokpal and Lokayukts aim to address systemic corruption by providing a dedicated platform for investigating complaints against public officials, thus deterring corrupt practices and promoting ethical governance. 
• Enhancing Accountability: These institutions enhance accountability by holding public officials responsible for their actions, which helps restore public trust in government. 
• Empowering Citizens: The Act empowers citizens to file complaints against corruption, offering protection from retaliation by powerful officials. 
• Promoting Good Governance: Independent oversight by Lokpal and Lokayukts ensures the effective use of public resources and encourages officials to act in the public's best interest. 

Similar Global Practices in Other Countries 

• Ombudsman (Scandinavian countries): Independent authorities investigate complaints against government officials, ensuring fair treatment and accountability. 
• Anti-Corruption Commissions (Hong Kong, Singapore): Agencies like ICAC (Hong Kong) and CPIB (Singapore) investigate and prosecute corruption in public and private sectors. 
• Public Protector (South Africa): Investigates maladministration and corruption by public officials, holding them accountable. 
• Federal Anticorruption Bureau (Brazil): Oversees corruption investigations with a focus on prosecuting high-level officials. 

What are the Limitations Related to Lokpal? 

• Limitation Period for Filing Complaints: Under the Lokpal and Lokayuktas Act, 2013, complaints against public servants must be filed within 7 years from the date of the alleged corruption or when the complainant becomes aware of it. 
  • This time-bound restriction may lead to the exclusion of older cases of corruption, especially those discovered much later. 
• Severe Punishment for False Complaints: The heavy penalties for filing false complaints may discourage individuals from lodging complaints, even when justified. 
• Independence Issues: The Lokpal and Lokayukts face challenges regarding their independence, with concerns over political influence affecting their ability to function impartially. 
• Ineffectiveness in Tackling Corruption: The Lokpal has struggled to effectively address corruption, as evidenced by its receipt of 8,703 complaints between 2019-20 and 2023, with 5,981 disposed of.  
  • However, it has not initiated prosecution against any individual for corruption, as noted in an April 2023 parliamentary committee report. 
• Exemptions Clause : While the Prime Minister falls under Lokpal’s jurisdiction, issues related to international relations, security, public order, atomic energy, and space are excluded, curbing its authority over sensitive matters. 
• No Oversight Mechanism: There is no comprehensive mechanism to evaluate Lokpal's own functioning, raising concerns about its accountability. 

Way Forward 

• Review Limitation Period: Extend or provide flexibility in the 7-year period for filing complaints to accommodate delayed cases and ensure justice. 
• Balanced Penalties: Implement proportional penalties for false complaints to deter misuse while encouraging legitimate grievances. 
• Ensure Independence: Strengthen safeguards against political influence, improve selection processes, and provide institutional support to uphold autonomy. 
  • The government should implement the recommendations made by Second ARC, which focuses on enhancing the Lokpal's accountability, streamlining processes, and improving its overall operational efficiency. 
• Clear Relationship with Other Agencies: A clear delineation of Lokpal's supervisory powers over the CBI, along with well-defined coordination mechanisms with agencies such as the ED and CVC, is essential to avoid jurisdictional conflicts and enhance inter-agency cooperation. 
• Adopt Global Best Practices: India should integrate international best practices, particularly from countries with strong whistleblower protection laws, in line with the United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC).  
  • This will encourage citizens to report corruption without fear of retribution, thus increasing the effectiveness of anti-corruption measures. 

Drishti Mains Question: 

Critically evaluate the role of the Lokpal in combating corruption in India. What are the key challenges it faces, and how can its effectiveness be enhanced?

 

UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Question (PYQ)  

Prelims  

Q. Consider the following statements: (2019)

1. The United Nations Convention against Corruption (UNCAC) has a ‘Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea and Air’. 
2. The UNCAC is the ever-first legally binding global anti-corruption instrument. 
3. A highlight of the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC) is the inclusion of a specific chapter aimed at returning assets to their rightful owners from whom they had been taken illicitly. 
4. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) is mandated by its member States to assist in the implementation of both UNCAC and UNTOC. 

Which of the statements given above are correct?  

(a) 1 and 3 only   

(b) 2, 3 and 4 only  

(c) 2 and 4 only   

(d) 1, 2, 3 and 4  

Ans: (c) 

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Mains 

Q. In the integrity index of Transparency International, India stands very low. Discuss briefly the legal, political, social and cultural factors that have caused the decline of public morality in India. (2016) 

Q. ‘A national Lokpal, however strong it may be, cannot resolve the problems of immorality in public affairs.’ Discuss (2013) 

Key Trends and Challenges in Retail Inflation

For Prelims: Retail inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Food Inflation, Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), Kharif, Rabi, Core Inflation, Rupee Depreciation, Imported Inflation, Foreign Investment, National Statistical Office (NSO), Purchasing Power, CPI for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW), CPI for Agricultural Laborers (CPI-AL), CPI for Rural Labourer (CPI-RL), CPI for Urban Non-Manual Employees (CPI-UNME), Food and Agriculture Organization. 

For Mains: Easing of inflation and related concerns, Monetary policy and Inflation management.    

Source: BS 

Why in News? 

Retail inflation, based on the consumer price index (CPI), fell to 5.22% in December 2024 from 5.48% in November 2024, driven by easing food inflation. 

• Retail inflation measures the rate at which the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers rise over time, reflecting changes in the cost of living. 

What are the Reasons for Easing of Retail Inflation? 

• Low Food Inflation: Food inflation, as measured by the Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI), fell to 8.39% in December 2024 from 9.04% in November 2024. 
• Positive Agricultural Output: A strong kharif harvest, favorable rabi sowing conditions, and sufficient reservoir levels eased food inflation. 
• Decline in Fuel Prices: Inflation in fuel prices remained in contraction at -1.39%, while for transport (2.64%) and education (3.89%) it remained unchanged, contributing to reduced overall inflationary pressures. 
  • Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel items, fell to 3.5% in December 2024. 
• Stability in Non-Food Categories: Housing (2.71%), clothing and footwear (2.74%), and household goods (2.75%) inflation remained stable with minor changes. 

What are the Concerns Related to Inflation? 

• Inflation Above RBI's Target: Seven states recorded inflation above RBI’s 6% threshold, while ten states exceeded the national average. 
  • Chhattisgarh reported the highest inflation at 7.63%, followed by Bihar (7.4%) and Odisha  (7%), reflecting localized inflation challenges. 
• Imported Inflation: Rupee depreciation increases the cost of imported crude oil and global commodities, raising domestic prices and making it harder to control inflation. 
  • The reliance on imported commodities, such as edible oils, exposes India to global price volatility.  
  • A weaker rupee makes imports more expensive because more rupees are needed to buy the same amount of foreign commodities. 
• High Global Interest Rates: High global interest rates could deter foreign investment in India, impacting financial stability and worsening currency depreciation. 
  • It could lead investors to shift capital to countries like the US and Europe, offering higher yields, which reduces foreign investment inflows into emerging markets like India. 

What is the Consumer Price Index? 

• About: CPI measures the overall change in consumer prices based on a representative basket of goods and services over time, with 2012 as the base year. 
  • The basket of goods includes food, clothing, transportation, medical care, electricity, education, and more. 
  • The CPI is published monthly by the National Statistical Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI). 
• Objective: CPI is used for targeting price stability, adjusting dearness allowance, and understanding cost of living, purchasing power, and the expensiveness of goods and services. 
• Calculation: CPI is calculated by dividing the cost of a fixed basket in the current year by the cost in the base year, then multiplying by 100. 
• Types: There are 4 different types of CPI measured. 
  • CPI for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW): It tracks price changes in a fixed basket of goods and services used by industrial workers over time. The Labour Bureau, under the Ministry of Labour and Employment, compiles CPI-IW. 
  • CPI for Agricultural Laborers (CPI-AL): The Labour Bureau compiles CPI-AL to assist in revising minimum wages for agricultural workers across different states. 
  • CPI for Rural Labourer (CPI-RL): It measures changes in the retail prices of goods and services consumed by agricultural and rural laborers.  
    • The Labour Bureau compiles CPI-RL. 
  • CPI for Urban Non-Manual Employees (CPI-UNME): CPI-UNME is compiled by NSO. An urban non-manual employee earns 50% or more of their income from non-manual work in the urban non-agricultural sector. 
• Components: The following are the primary components of CPI (along with their weightage). 
  • Food and Beverage (45.86%) 
  • Housing (10.07%) 
  • Fuel and Light (6.84%) 
  • Clothing and Footwear (6.53%) 
  • Pan, tobacco, and intoxicants (2.38%) 
  • Miscellaneous (28.32%) 

 Consumer Food Price Index 

• About: Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) is a measure of change in retail prices of food products consumed by a defined population group in a given area with reference to a base year.  
  • The base year presently used is 2012. 
• Releasing Body: NSO, MoSPI started releasing CFPI for three categories i.e., rural, urban and combined separately on an all India basis with effect from May, 2014. 
  • Like CPI, the CFPI is also calculated on a monthly basis. 

• Note: FAO Food Price Index: Globally, food price index is being released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations on a monthly basis.  
• The basket of food commodities consists of the average of 5 commodity group price indices (Cereal, Vegetable Oil, Dairy, Meat and Sugar) weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002-2004. 

 

 

 Conclusion 

Retail inflation in India eased to 5.22% in December 2024, driven by reduced food inflation and stable non-food categories. However, concerns remain due to localized inflation, rupee depreciation, and high global interest rates, which may affect domestic inflation control and foreign investment.  

Drishti Mains Question: 

Analyze the role of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in shaping monetary policy and its impact on the Indian economy.

 UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Questions (PYQs) 

Prelims 

 Q. Consider the following statements: (2020)

1. The weightage of food in Consumer Price Index (CPI) is higher than that in Wholesale Price Index (WPI).
2. The WPI does not capture changes in the prices of services, which CPI does.
3. Reserve Bank of India has now adopted WPI as its key measure of inflation and to decide on changing the key policy rates.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct? 

(a) 1 and 2 only 

(b) 2 only 

(c) 3 only 

(d) 1, 2 and 3 

Ans: (a) 

 Q. If the RBI decides to adopt an expansionist monetary policy, which of the following would it not do?(2020)

1. Cut and optimize the Statutory Liquidity Ratio
2. Increase the Marginal Standing Facility Rate
3. Cut the Bank Rate and Repo Rate

Select the correct answer using the code given below: 

(a) 1 and 2 only  

(b) 2 only 

(c) 1 and 3 only  

(d) 1, 2 and 3 

Ans: (b) 

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Mains 

Q.Define potential GDP and explain its determinants. What are the factors that have been inhibiting India from realizing its potential GDP? (2020) 

Q. Do you agree with the view that steady GDP growth and low inflation have left the Indian economy in good shape? Give reasons in support of your arguments (2019)

National Turmeric Board

Source: PIB 

Why in News? 

The Ministry of Commerce & Industry launched the National Turmeric Board (NTB) with its headquarters at Nizamabad, Telangana. 

What are Key Facts About the National Turmeric Board? 

• About: It has been established to promote the cultivation, production, processing, and marketing of turmeric in India and enhancing the income of turmeric farmers. 
  • The Ministry of Commerce & Industry has increased its product-dedicated boards to six, after tea, coffee, rubber, spices, and tobacco. 
• Board Representation: The Board will consist of a Chairperson appointed by the Central Government with representatives of the Ministry of AYUSH, Department of Pharmaceuticals, Department of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare and Department of Commerce, along with rotating senior representatives from three states. 
• Key Objectives: Farmer welfare across 20 states, including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and others. 
  • Promoting research, new products, and value addition for domestic and international markets. 
  • Raising awareness about turmeric’s medical benefits. 

What are Key Facts About Turmeric? 

• About: Turmeric is an underground stem of the Curcuma longa plant, which is part of the ginger family (Zingiberaceae).  
  • Curcumin, the active compound in turmeric, gives it its yellow color and is known for its anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and antimicrobial benefits. 
• Cultivation: India grows over 30 varieties of turmeric across 20+ states, with major production in Maharashtra, Telangana, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. 
• Global Position: India is the largest producer, consumer, and exporter of turmeric globally. 
  • In 2022-23, India produced over 75% of the world's turmeric and holds 62% of the global export market. 
• Export Performance: In 2022-23, India exported 1,53,400 tonnes of turmeric and turmeric products valued at USD 207.45 million. 
  • Key export markets include Bangladesh, UAE, the US, and Malaysia. 
• GI Tag: Lakadong turmeric (Meghalaya), Kandhamal turmeric (Odisha), Erode turmeric (Tamil Nadu), Armoor turmeric (Nizamabad, Telanagan) among others have got GI tag. 
  •  A GI tag is a label given to a product linked to a specific region, with qualities or characteristics unique to that area. 
• Medical Benefits: Turmeric, with its active compound curcumin, helps reduce inflammation, neutralize free radicals, and support digestive health by promoting bile production. 

Note: India ranked the world's 8th largest agricultural exporter in 2023 despite a decline in exports from USD 51.12 billion in FY23 to USD 48.77 billion in FY24. 

• India is targeting a significant boost in its organic produce exports, aiming to triple the value to Rs 20,000 crore within the next three years. 

UPSC Civil Services Examination Previous Year Question (PYQ) 

Prelims 

Q. Consider the following: (2018)

1. Areca nut 
2. Barley
3. Coffee 
4. Finger millet
5. Groundnut 
6. Sesamum
7. Turmeric

The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has announced the Minimum Support Price for which of the above? 

(a) 1, 2, 3 and 7 only  

(b) 2, 4, 5 and 6 only 

(c) 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 only  

(d) 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 

Ans: (b) 

Q. Match List-I with List-II and select the correct answer using the code given below the Lists: (2008)

List-I	List-II
(Board)	(Headquarters)
A. Coffee Board	1. Bengaluru
B. Rubber Board	2. Guntur
C. Tea Board	3. Kottayam
D. Tobacco Board	4. Kolkata

   

Code: 

     A B C D 

(a) 2 4 3 1 

(b) 1 3 4 2 

(c) 2 3 4 1 

(d) 1 4 3 2 

Ans: (b)  

150th Foundation Day of IMD and Mission Mausam

Source: TOI 

Why in News? 

The Prime Minister of India (PM) participated in the 150^th Foundation Day celebrations of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on 15^th January 2025 at New Delhi. 

• He also launched the Mission Mausam initiative and released the IMD Vision-2047 document. 
• The event also witnessed the participation of the Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 

What is the Mission Mausam Initiative? 

• About: Mission Mausam is a government initiative aimed at enhancing the capabilities of India’s weather department in weather forecasting, modelling, and dissemination. 
• Budget: The mission will have an allocation of Rs 2,000 crore for its first two years of implementation. 
• Objectives: 
  • Upgrade Weather Forecasting: The mission seeks to improve the accuracy of short to medium range weather forecasts by 5-10%, enhance the air quality prediction in major metro cities by up to 10% and extend predictions to the panchayat level with a lead time of 10-15 days.  
    • Currently, the IMD's accuracy for extreme events like heat waves is approximately 98%, while heavy rainfall forecasts stand at around 80%. 
  • Invest in Technology: It will utilize advanced technologies like AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing to improve weather models and observational systems, including the deployment of additional Doppler radars and satellites. 
  • Weather Management: Mission will explore weather modification techniques like cloud seeding to manage rainfall and mitigate extreme events such as floods and droughts. 
  • Cloud Chamber Research: A cloud chamber will be set up at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, to study cloud dynamics and improve weather management through cloud seeding experiments. 
• Phases: Mission Mausam will be executed in 2 phases over 5 years. 
  • Phase One (2025 - March 2026): Focus on expanding the observational network by adding around 70 Doppler radars, high-performance computers, wind profilers, and radiometers. 
  • Phase Two (2026 onwards): Further enhancement of observational capabilities through the introduction of satellites and aircraft. 

What is the IMD Vision-2047 Document? 

• About:  
  • It is a strategic document that sets ambitious targets for enhancing weather forecasting accuracy and disaster management in India by 2047. 
  • It outlines milestones for the next two years, ten years (2035), and twenty-two years (2047). 
• Key Objectives: 
  • 100% Detection of Severe Weather: Aiming for complete detection of severe weather events at the village and household levels by 2047, using enhanced observational systems like satellites and radars. 
  • Forecast Accuracy: Achieving: 
    • 100% accuracy for forecasts up to 3 days 
    • 90% accuracy for up to 5 days 
    • 80% accuracy for up to 7 days 
    • 70% accuracy for up to 10 days 
  • Zero Deaths from Weather Events: Aiming to reduce fatalities from extreme weather events to zero, ensuring early warnings for disaster management. 

India Meteorological Department (IMD) 

• IMD is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology in India established in 1875. 
• It operates under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India. 
• It provides weather forecasts and warnings for sectors like agriculture, aviation, and shipping, and offers critical data for national development.  
• It also conducts research to advance meteorological science. 

Major Initiatives Related to Meteorology in India 

• National Monsoon Mission (NMM) 
• Mausam App 
• Doppler Weather Radars 

 UPSC Civil Services Examination, Previous Year Question (PYQ) 

Prelims 

Q. With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct? (2017)

1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. 
2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon. 

Select the correct answer using the code given below: 

(a) 1 only 
(b) 2 only  
(c) Both 1 and 2 
(d) Neither 1 nor 2 

Ans: (b) 

---

Mains: 

Q. What do you understand by the phenomenon of temperature inversion in meteorology? How does it affect weather and the inhabitants of the place? (2013) 

Data Embassies

Source: LM 

• India is in advanced talks to set up UAE's first data embassy in India, with the first potential data embassy expected in Andhra Pradesh. 
• It will enable nations to store a copy of their sovereign data while retaining control over it. 
  • It will ensure data continuity in cases of natural disasters or geopolitical unrest. 
• India plans to create special strategic zones for data centres that will house sovereign data storage for multiple countries. 
• They will operate like consular divisions, with the embassy managing privacy, access, and data handling, while India hosts the infrastructure. 
• Estonia was the 1^st country to store a digitized copy of its citizens' data in Luxembourg, after a cyberattack in 2007. 
• Countries can use these embassies to localize data without adhering to foreign data regulations. 
• Setting up data embassies will boost India's geopolitical credibility as a stable region for data storage amid global instability. 

Read More: India as Global Hub For Data Centres 

Gangasagar Mela

Source: TH 

The annual Gangasagar Mela is being organised in West Bengal and the state government has introduced several initiatives to enhance the Gangasagar Mela experience, including: 

• Bandhan Initiative: Pilgrims receive a certificate in three languages. 
• e-Anushandhan: System for accessing mela facilities. 
• e-Parichay: QR code-enabled identity bands to prevent missing persons. 

Additionally, the state has been advocating for "national mela" status for the Gangasagar Mela for several years. 

About Gangasagar Mela: 

• Gangasagar Mela is an annual religious festival held on Sagar Island, West Bengal, at the confluence of the Ganga and Bay of Bengal.  
• The Ganga river, originating from Gangotri, completes its journey and merges with the Bay of Bengal.  
• The festival, which coincides with Makar Sankranti, involves rituals like taking a holy dip in the Ganga, offering "Arghya" to the Sun God, and performing "Deepdan" (lighting lamps) to seek liberation and spiritual upliftment. 
• It is considered the second-largest religious gathering in India after the Kumbh Mela. 
• The fair is historically mentioned in the Mahabharata's Vana Parva and Raghuvamsa (by Kalidasa), with evidence of the pilgrimage dating back to 1500–2000 BC, and is associated with the sage Kapilmuni and the Pala dynasty’s King Devapala. 

 

Read More: Bangla for Classical Language, GangaSagar Mela for National Status 

Nag Mark 2 Anti-Tank Guided Missile

Source: HT 

India successfully conducted field trials of the indigenously developed Nag Mk 2 Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) at Pokhran Field Firing Range in Rajasthan. 

 Nag Mk 2 Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) 

Developed By	Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)
Type and Functionality	It is a third-generation, all-weather, fire-and-forget anti-tank guided missile with lock-on after launch capability, allowing it to autonomously track and engage targets.
Effectiveness	It  is designed to neutralize modern armoured vehicles, including those with Explosive Reactive Armour (ERA), using a tandem high-explosive anti-tank (HEAT) warhead for enhanced destructive power.
Range	7 to 10 kilometres. Its predecessor was the Nag Mark 1 (4 km range).
Attack Modes	It features a top-attack capability, targeting the vulnerable upper surface of armoured vehicles.
Launch Platform	The Nag Mk-2 is launched from the NAMICA (Nag Missile Carrier) Version 2.  NAMICA is an anti-tank armored vehicle or tank destroyer vehicle used by the Indian Army to launch anti-tank missiles.

 

Read More: Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM) 

Human Brain Implant by Neuralink

Source: HT 

Elon Musk announced that a 3^rd person has received an implant from his brain-computer interface company, Neuralink, to connect the nervous system to machines. 

•  Neuralink plans to expand its trials with the goal of implanting the experimental devices in 20 to 30 more people in 2025. 
• Brain-Computer Interface (BCI): BCI is a technology that allows direct communication between the brain and external devices, such as computers or prosthetics, bypassing traditional neuromuscular pathways like nerves and muscles. 
  • BCIs use sensors to detect brain activity, translating it into commands that allow individuals to control devices or interact with the world using their thoughts. 
• Potential Applications: Brain interfacing for conditions like epilepsy, Parkinson's, and neurodegenerative diseases. 
  • Enabling control of prosthetics and wheelchairs through thought. 
  • Restoring communication for paralyzed individuals. 
  • Enhancing VR/AR experiences using thoughts. 
• It is different from brainoware that uses brain organoids and microelectrodes to create an "organoid neural network (ONN)" integrating living brain tissue into computing.  
  • Brain organoids are 3D stem-cell-derived tissues that mimic human brain structure. 

Read More: Neuralink's Blindsight Implant