India’s Foreign Policy Post-18th Lok Sabha Elections

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India’s Foreign Policy Post-18th Lok Sabha Elections

30 Jul 2024

Following the elections for the 18th Lok Sabha, conducted over seven phases from April 19 to June 1, 2024, BJP led NDA has formed the government. This, in effect, means Mr. Narendra Modi has become the Prime Minister for a third consecutive term. In terms of Foreign Policy, what would this mean? Which policies will continue or will there be any major changes?

Usually, foreign policy does not take a 360 degrees turn with a change in Government. Even when a political party in power changes and a new government is formed, there is not a complete overhaul of foreign policy priorities. However, an international arena which is considered as anarchical might require slight tweaks in foreign policy from time to time.

Focusing on the Neighbourhood First Policy

India's immediate neighbours in South Asia have the same geographical borders, both land and sea. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka are these nations. Beyond borders, we share a civilisational connection with many nations.

For the security of any nation, it is imperative to be first secure from the immediate neighbours since the vulnerability of any country to a threat is most from its immediate neighbours. As former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee once said, you can change your friends but not your neighbours.

In accordance with this, leaders of seven countries from the immediate neighbourhood and Indian Ocean Region were invited for the Oath-taking ceremony of the Prime Minister and other Union Ministers. Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles were invited for the event.

Increase in Cooperation in Indo-Pacific

As the dynamics of geopolitics change, a recent terminology has become prevalent. The buzzword is Indo-Pacific, which refers to the linking of the Indian Ocean with the Pacific Ocean as a new strategic theatre. It encompasses countries from Oceania, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and East Asia.

For India and its security, it's important that the region is free from any monopolistic presence of one nation. To ensure the freedom to navigate in this region is thus crucial for our security. It must not be forgotten that most of the trade in the world is conducted through maritime routes and various critical sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) are present in the region alone.

Furthermore, this region is a vital hub for international trade and investment. This is why India has become a part of the US-led initiative called the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). This framework aims to strengthen economic partnership among participating countries to enhance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative is one such initiative that aims to ensure a free, open, inclusive, and rules based Indo-Pacific region. This initiative was launched in 2019 by the Indian Prime Minister at the 14^th East Asia Summit. It draws on existing regional architecture and mechanisms to focus on seven pillars:

Maritime Security
Maritime Ecology
Maritime Resources
Capacity Building and Resource Sharing
Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
Science, Technology and Academic Cooperation
Trade Connectivity and Maritime Transport

We are also a part of QUAD i.e the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, along with US, Japan, Australia. The four countries forming this informal forum are all democracies and share a common interest of unhindered maritime trade and security.

Strengthening Indo-US Relationship

In the recent decades, the Indo-US relationship has transformed significantly. India is the largest democracy in the world while the US is the oldest democracy to exist. Both the countries, thus, share common values and cherish democracy. Presently, both countries share common interests including, advancing global security, enhancing economic prosperity especially through trade and increasing connectivity. India and the US also conduct various military exercises, including Yuddha Abyas and Vajra Prahar.

Most importantly, the defence cooperation between the two nations have increased significantly. In 2016, we signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), followed by the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018. Very recently, in 2020, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geo-Spatial cooperation (BECA) in 2020. This has bolstered defence ties, and facilitates information exchange and interoperability.

Beyond this, we also cooperate in various other domains. One cannot forget to mention the crucial role of Indian Diaspora in the US and its impact in bringing the two nations together.

Boosting Ties with ASEAN Countries and Focus on Act East Policy

In the backdrop of the end of the Cold War in 1991, and disintegration of a strategic partner- USSR as a result, India found itself in need of new partners and allies. Turning eastwards, the former Prime Minister P.V Narasimha Rao launched the Look East Policy in 1992.

In 2014, the Look East Policy was upgraded to become Act East Policy. What was the difference? While the Look East focused majorly on economic integration and ASEAN countries, the Act East Policy combines economic integration, ASEAN countries, East Asian Countries as well as Security cooperation. Thus, it expands the areas of cooperation as well as widens the horizon. PM Modi identified 4C’s of this policy - Culture, Commerce, Connectivity and Commerce Building.

Notably, the year 2024 marks the 10^th anniversary of Act East Policy. India will make sure to use this occasion to deepen its connection with the countries of the region.

Economic Boost through Increase in Exports and Free Trade Agreements

The 21^st century is a globally interconnected world connected through trade, technology and communications is the present day reality. India signed free trade agreements with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) which includes Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. This came in after long years of negotiations. India has also signed various other FTAs since 2014 including with Mercosur, EFTA, Australia, UAE, Mauritius to name very recent ones.

The free trade agreements allows the countries to set an arrangement where the parties agree to end or at least reduce custom duties on a variety of goods. India will aim to negotiate more such Free Trade Agreements. With the United Kingdom, the negotiations began in 2022. It also would like to have one with the European Union, although this will come after a long round of discussions and negotiations. India is the third largest trading partner of the EU, today. Many such FTAs can be expected.

Maintaining Strategic Autonomy and following Multialignment

Under Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, India followed Non-Alignment as its policy. The world was divided into two power blocs- with the USA and USSR on opposing sides. Mindfully, India adopted Non-Alignment to remain outside of the power-bloc politics. The idea first emerged at the 1955 Bandung Conference that took place in Indonesia. In 1961, the first NAM Summit was held in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. This policy of non-aligning helped India to navigate through a world that was divided into two powers. One must, however, not confuse Non-Alignment as a policy of neutrality.

Fast forward to the present time, India maintains a position of multialignment, and values “strategic autonomy”. But what does Strategic Autonomy mean? It refers to the ability of a state to pursue its own national interest without being constrained by other actors.

There is no doubt that India follows a Multialignment approach. The world politics and its dynamics have significantly changed over time. It's no longer a unipolar world. India recognises the present reality of the world as being multipolar.

A case in point is the recent visit of Prime Minister Modi to Moscow, where he was conferred with the order of Saint Andrew the Apostle, the highest civilian honour in Russia. As many as 15 agreements were also signed between the two countries focusing on a range of topics, from economy to environment. The fact that India maintains its position to engage and maintain a multialignment stance is visible through this visit. Today, we deal with the West and Russia, both! This position is not likely to change.

Emphasis on the Middle-East

One of the most conflict stricken regions in the world today, is maybe, the Middle East. Our foreign policy does not overlook that reality. Indian foreign policy would maintain a careful position in this region. India will work to ensure security and political balance in the region.

Very recently, at the G20 Summit hosted by New Delhi last year in 2023, India-MiddleEast-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was signed as a part of Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII). The IMEC, with two corridors namely, the East Corridor and the Northern Corridor, consists of a rail network, ship to rails and of course, railroads. A diverse range of countries including India, US, Saudi Arabia, UAE, European Union, Italy, France, Germany have signed it. This will boost economic growth through trade connectivity. The third term of PM Modi will not ignore this important project. Furthermore, our involvement with I2U2 (India, Israel, UAE, USA) will also be managed carefully. One must not forget that we engage with a variety of actors, like Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Bilateral Relationships

Last but not the least, bilateral relationships form a very important part of any country's foreign policy goals. It cannot and will not, ignore bilateral relationships. Be it with the immediate neighbours, where the focus would be to strengthen the relationships or improve them, or to extended neighbours. New relationships, one that suits time and need, are expected as well. At the same time, the large players on the international front, be it the USA, or Russia, will not be ignored. It's obvious to state that China's actions will be observed with closeness.

Focus on Energy, Climate, and Space Technology

Foreign policy cannot be understood on the basis of relationships alone. It remains incomplete without a focus on key issue areas.

Energy security is a vital issue. It refers to the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price. Since we are a major economy in the world today, our energy needs are understandably high. In regard to Climate and the ever looming threat of Climate Change, India will prioritise this issue. International Solar Alliance is one example where India has taken a lead along with France to mobilise efforts against climate change by deployment of solar energy solutions. Furthermore, with the Chandrayaan-3 success, India has gained praise worldwide for its space program. Many space agencies of different countries will not hesitate to collaborate, as a result.

Conclusion

Indian foreign policy has been dynamic and flexible, since its inception. From navigating the complex course of Cold War politics when the world was divided into two major power blocs- between the US and USSR by opting Non-alignment as its policy to a multi-alignment approach of the 21st century global politics, our foreign policy has been one that has maintained its stance independently and will continue to do so, in the upcoming years as well.

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