Chief Election Commissioner Criticises Exit Polls

• 16 Oct 2024

Why in News?

The Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) of India raised concerns about the reliability of exit polls and premature display of vote counting trends, citing the recent Haryana elections as a case where exit polls created unrealistic expectations and raised political concerns.

Key Points

• Distortion by Exit Polls:
  • Exit polls often set unrealistic expectations, leading to a significant gap between predicted and actual election results.
  • In the recent Haryana elections, most exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the Congress, projecting over 50 seats, but the actual results did not match these expectations.
  • This created frustration among the public and political parties, with Congress raising concerns about the exit polls' accuracy.
• Premature Display of Early Counting Trends:
  • Some news channels aired early trends before official vote counting began, contributing to misinformation and speculation.
  • CEC criticized this practice as "nonsense," pointing out that initial trends shown before counting lacks a scientific basis and can mislead the public.
  • He explained that the actual counting process begins only after 8:30 a.m., with verified results being posted on the Election Commission's website after 9:30 a.m.
• Call for Self-Regulation:
  • While the Election Commission does not directly control exit polls, CEC urged that regulatory bodies overseeing media and polling must take a stronger stance on improving exit poll practices.
  • Transparency in exit poll methodology, including factors such as sample size, polling locations, and data collection methods, is necessary to maintain credibility.
  • CEC also emphasized that bodies governing media and polling agencies should enforce better practices to avoid misinformation during elections.
• Exit Poll Methodology Issues:
  • Exit polls are based on interviews conducted with voters as they exit polling stations, but their accuracy depends on the quality of data collected and how representative the sample is.
  • The methodology behind exit polls, including the sample's size and representativeness (reflecting various voter profiles like caste, religion, and geography), plays a crucial role in determining the accuracy of the polls.
• Swing Models and Prediction Challenges:
  • Exit polls use swing models to predict seat allocations based on vote share estimates from the previous election.
  • However, in a complex political environment like Haryana, where multiple parties and alliances are involved, these swing models often fail to capture shifts in voter behavior or alliance changes.

Election Commission of India

• About:
  • The Election Commission of India (ECI) is an autonomous constitutional authority responsible for administering Union and State election processes in India.
    • It was established in accordance with the Constitution on 25^th January 1950 (celebrated as National Voters' Day). The secretariat of the commission is in New Delhi.
  • The body administers elections to the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, and State Legislative Assemblies in India, and the offices of the President and Vice President in the country.
    • It is not concerned with the elections to panchayats and municipalities in the states. For this, the Constitution of India provides for a separate State Election Commission.
• Constitutional Provisions:
  • Part XV (Article 324-329): It deals with elections and establishes a commission for these matters.
  • Article 324: Superintendence, direction and control of elections to be vested in an Election Commission.
  • Article 325: No person to be ineligible for inclusion in, or to claim to be included in a special, electoral roll-on grounds of religion, race, caste or sex.
  • Article 326: Elections to the House of the People and to the Legislative Assemblies of States to be based on adult suffrage.
  • Article 327: Power of Parliament to make provision with respect to elections to Legislatures.
  • Article 328: Power of Legislature of a State to make provision with respect to elections to such Legislature.
  • Article 329: Bar to interference by courts in electoral matters.
• Structure of ECI:
  • Originally the commission had only one election commissioner but after the Election Commissioner Amendment Act, 1989, it was made a multi-member body.
  • The Election Commission shall consist of the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) and such number of other election commissioners, if any, as the President may from time-to-time fix.
  • Presently, it consists of the CEC and two Election Commissioners (ECs).
    • At the state level, the election commission is helped by the Chief Electoral Officer.
• Appointment & Tenure of Commissioners:
  • The President appoints CEC and Election Commissioners as per the CEC and Other ECs (Appointment, Conditions of Service and Term of Office) Act, 2023.
  • They have a fixed tenure of six years, or up to the age of 65 years, whichever is earlier.
  • The salary and conditions of service of the CEC and ECs will be equivalent to that of the Supreme Court Judge.
• Removal:
  • They can resign anytime or can also be removed before the expiry of their term.
  • The CEC can be removed from office only through a process of removal similar to that of a SC judge by Parliament, while ECs can only be removed on the recommendation of the CEC.