Sambhav-2025

Approach Briefly highlight the significance of India-Bangladesh relations. Discuss the impact of recent political developments in Bangladesh on India-Bangladesh relations. Suggest measures to strengthen the bilateral relationships Conclude suitably.

Introduction

India and Bangladesh share strong historical, cultural, and economic ties, evolving since Bangladesh’s 1971 independence. Cooperation spans trade, security, and connectivity. However, recent protests over job quotas and Sheikh Hasina’s resignation, followed by her seeking refuge in India, have raised concerns over Bangladesh’s stability and its ties with India.

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Significance of India-Bangladesh Relations :

• Historical Ties:
  • The foundation of India’s relationship with Bangladesh was laid in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.
  • India provided critical military and material support to assist Bangladesh in its fight for independence from Pakistan.
• Economic Ties:
  • Bangladesh is India’s biggest trade partner in South Asia and India is the second biggest trade partner of Bangladesh in Asia.
  • Bangladesh exported USD 1.97 billion of goods to India in FY 2023-24. In FY 2023-24, the total bilateral trade has been reported as USD 14.01 billion.
• Infrastructure:
  • India and Bangladesh in 2023 inaugurated the Akhaura-Agartala Rail Link that connects Bangladesh and the northeast through Tripura.
  • Infrastructure projects such as Maitree Thermal Power Plant (1320 MW), India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline, and connectivity through Chittagong and Mongla ports enhance economic ties.
• Defense Cooperation:
  • India and Bangladesh share 4096.7 km of border; the longest land boundary that India shares with any of its neighbors.
  • Agreements such as the Land Boundary Agreement (2015) resolved longstanding border disputes.
  • The two also conduct Joint Exercises - Army (Exercise Sampriti) and Navy (Exercise Bongo Sagar).
• Cultural Connectivity :
  • Rabindranath Tagore, who wrote both India’s and Bangladesh’s national anthems ("Jana Gana Mana" and "Amar Sonar Bangla"), symbolizes the literary bond.
  • Initiatives like the Maitree Express (Kolkata-Dhaka train) facilitate easier travel for cultural and familial visits.

Impact of Recent Political Developments

• Political Instability and Governance Challenges:
  • Bangladesh has witnessed large-scale protests over job quotas and economic distress, leading to unrest.
  • India has lost a key partner in Sheikh Hasina, who has been instrumental in countering terrorism and strengthening bilateral relations
  • Opposition groups like the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) have often been critical of India, leading to fears of shifting diplomatic priorities.
• Economic and Trade Disruptions:
  • Political uncertainty may delay India’s investment projects, including CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), which was under discussion.
  • Instability could affect $9.5 billion worth of Indian investments in Bangladesh, especially in energy and infrastructure.
• Security and Border Concerns:
  • Increased political unrest may trigger illegal migration into India’s northeastern states.
  • Rising anti-India sentiments could impact security cooperation, particularly along West Bengal, Assam, and Tripura borders.
• Geopolitical Shifts and China’s Growing Influence:
  • China is Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade at $24 billion in 2022.
  • Bangladesh has joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), receiving loans for projects like the Padma Bridge Rail Link ($3.3 billion) and Dhaka Airport Expansion ($1.2 billion).
  • Political instability may lead to greater Chinese influence in Bangladesh’s foreign policy, challenging India’s regional dominance.

Measures to Strengthen Bilateral Relations

• Neutral Diplomatic Engagement:
  • India must engage with all political factions, ensuring neutrality to avoid allegations of interference.
  • Strengthening parliamentary and diplomatic dialogue with Bangladesh’s leadership.
• Enhancing Economic Cooperation:
  • Fast-tracking CEPA negotiations to promote duty-free trade and reduce tariff barriers.
  • Expanding investments in IT, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and renewable energy.
• Security and Border Management:
  • Strengthening border surveillance and increasing coordination between BSF (Border Security Force) and BGB (Border Guard Bangladesh).
  • Addressing Rohingya refugee concerns to prevent illegal migration and humanitarian crises.
• Resolving Water-sharing Disputes:
  • Finalizing the Teesta River Agreement, benefiting millions of farmers in North Bengal and Bangladesh.
  • Strengthening cooperation on river basin management and flood control.
• Strengthening People-to-People Ties:
  • Expanding cultural exchanges, scholarships, and tourism, as 2.3 million Bangladeshis visited India in 2023 for medical and educational purposes.
  • Encouraging collaboration in science, technology, and digital connectivity.

Conclusion

Bangladesh’s political crisis presents both challenges and opportunities for India. While instability may disrupt trade, security, and regional cooperation, proactive diplomatic engagement, economic investments, and security collaborations can ensure stability. India must adopt a balanced approach, ensuring Bangladesh remains a reliable strategic partner, contributing to regional peace and prosperity.