Sambhav-2025

Approach Briefly highlight India’s historical ties with Russia in defense and strategic cooperation. Mention India’s growing partnership with the USA. Discuss the challenges in balancing both relationships. Suggest a pragmatic foreign policy approach ahead. Conclude suitably.

Introduction

India has historically shared deep defense and strategic ties with Russia, with over 60-70% of its military equipment originating from Moscow. However, India's growing partnership with the USA, driven by shared democratic values, Indo-Pacific security concerns, and technological collaboration, has created a complex balancing act. As India navigates between its traditional ally, Russia, and its emerging partner, the USA, this balancing act has significant implications for its foreign policy.

Body

India-Russia Defense and Strategic Ties

• Defense Procurements: India has been one of Russia’s largest defense buyers, with major procurements including:
  • S-400 Triumf Missile Systems (Deal worth $5.4 billion in 2018).
  • BrahMos Supersonic Cruise Missile, a joint India-Russia development.
  • INS Vikramaditya Aircraft Carrier and AK-203 Assault Rifles.
  • Sukhoi Su-30MKI and MiG-29 Fighters, forming the backbone of the IAF.
  • Russian equipment still accounts for over 45% of India's current defense imports (SIPRI, 2023).
• Energy and Economic Cooperation :
  • Russia has become a key oil supplier to India, accounting for 40% of India's crude oil imports (April 2023) after the Ukraine war.
  • India-Russia bilateral trade surged to $49 billion in 2023, mainly due to discounted energy imports.
  • Collaboration in nuclear energy, with Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant being a key project.

Growing India-USA Strategic Partnership

• Strengthening Defense Cooperation: India and the USA have signed major defense agreements:
  • LEMOA (2016): Logistics support agreement for military cooperation.
  • COMCASA (2018): Secure communications technology sharing.
  • BECA (2020): Geospatial intelligence sharing for precision military operations.
• Defense trade has grown from near zero in 2008 to over $20 billion in 2023, with acquisitions such as:
  • MH-60R Seahawk helicopters, P-8I reconnaissance aircraft, Apache and Chinook helicopters.
• Indo-Pacific and Strategic Alignments
  • India and the USA collaborate on Quad (with Japan and Australia) to counter China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) strengthens trade and technology partnerships.
  • India participates in INDUS-X (India-U.S. Defense Industrial Cooperation) and iCET (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies) to boost high-tech collaboration.

Challenges in Balancing Both Relationships

• Dependence on Russian Defense Equipment :
  • India's S-400 deal led to CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) concerns with the USA.
  • While the USA encourages India to shift to Western weapons, a rapid transition is technically and financially challenging.
• US Sanctions and Strategic Pressures :
  • The Ukraine war strained India’s balancing act as the USA pushed for diplomatic distancing from Russia, while India maintained a neutral stance.
  • India has avoided Western sanctions by purchasing Russian oil in rupees and dirhams, reducing dependence on the dollar.
• Geopolitical Shifts and China Factor :
  • China’s growing closeness to Russia (e.g., Xi-Putin Strategic Partnership) creates strategic dilemmas for India.
  • The USA sees India as a counterweight to China, but India cannot afford to sever ties with Russia, which has supported it at the UNSC on Kashmir and during past conflicts.

Steps Ahead for India’s Foreign Policy

• Strategic Autonomy and Multi-Alignment :
  • India should follow a "multi-alignment" rather than non-alignment, engaging with both powers based on national interest.
  • Example: India participates in Quad with the USA but remains a key player in BRICS and SCO, led by Russia and China.
• Strengthening Defense and Technology Autonomy :
  • Expanding domestic defense production through Make in India to reduce reliance on both Russia and the USA.
  • Developing joint ventures with multiple partners, including France, Israel, and the EU.
• Balancing Energy and Economic Partnerships :
  • Diversifying energy imports through Gulf nations to reduce overreliance on Russia.
  • Expanding India-US economic ties, especially in semiconductors, AI, and digital technologies.
• Enhancing Diplomacy and Strategic Engagement :
  • Institutionalizing 2+2 dialogues with both Russia and the USA for better crisis management.
  • Using BRICS and SCO for strategic leverage while strengthening Quad commitments.

Conclusion

India’s balancing act between Russia and the USA reflects a pragmatic foreign policy approach, ensuring national security, economic stability, and strategic autonomy. By diversifying defense imports, maintaining diplomatic neutrality, and expanding multilateral engagements, India can navigate global power rivalries while preserving its strategic interests and sovereignty.