70^th BPSC Mains

Approach Introduce the concept of El Niño and La Niña briefly. In the body, explain the impact of El Niño on India’s weather, agriculture, and economy. Conclude suitably.

Introduction

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that alters global wind and rainfall patterns. It has historically been linked with weak monsoons, droughts, and agricultural stress in India. In contrast, La Niña—its cooler counterpart—generally supports better monsoon outcomes in the Indian subcontinent.

Body

• Impact of El Niño on India’s Weather Systems:
  • Weak Southwest Monsoon: Over 60% of El Niño years (1951–2022) have seen below-normal or deficient monsoon rainfall in India.
  • Heatwaves and High Temperatures: El Niño events are associated with increased heatwaves, particularly in northern and central India during the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods.
  • Reduced Cloud Formation and Rainfall Distribution: Due to the disruption of easterly trade winds and altered jet streams, rainfall becomes erratic and spatially uneven.
  • Water Stress and Reservoir Levels: Prolonged dry spells reduce the recharge of groundwater and storage in reservoirs, worsening urban and rural water crises.
• Impact on Indian Agriculture:
  • Lower Crop Yields: Deficient rainfall impacts kharif crops such as rice, pulses, maize, and cotton, leading to production losses.
  • Delay in Sowing and Harvesting Cycles: Erratic rainfall patterns due to El Niño disrupt the sowing schedules of farmers, especially small and marginal ones.
  • Increased Input Costs: In the absence of rains, greater reliance on irrigation increases expenditure on diesel and electricity.
  • Food Inflation and Supply Chain Stress: Reduced output in staples like rice and sugar can lead to price inflation, affecting consumer affordability.
• Impact on Indian Economy:
  • Inflationary Pressures: Agriculture contributes significantly to India’s consumer price index (CPI). Lower food production increases inflation.
  • GDP Slowdown in Agri-Dependent States: States like Punjab, UP, Bihar, and Odisha—with high rural populations—face contraction in income and output.
  • Stress on Rural Employment Schemes: Increased rural distress due to crop failure leads to greater demand for MGNREGA and relief assistance.
  • Strain on Power Sector and Water Utilities: Greater use of pumpsets and air-conditioning increases electricity demand, stressing power grids and supply systems.
• La Niña and Its Contrasting Impact:
  • Stronger Monsoon and Above-Normal Rainfall: La Niña years typically bring abundant rainfall, which supports agricultural output and water availability.
  • Increased Risk of Floods: While La Niña supports rain-fed agriculture, it can also lead to floods in coastal and riverine areas.
  • Better Agricultural Growth and Rural Demand: Higher rainfall during La Niña years boosts kharif crop productivity, stimulating rural incomes and consumption.

Conclusion

The 2023 El Niño event once again underscored India’s vulnerability to global climatic disturbances. While El Niño disrupts monsoons, agriculture, and economic stability, La Niña generally benefits the monsoon cycle. Understanding these opposing phenomena is vital for climate-resilient policy-making, early warning systems, and agro-economic planning in a monsoon-dependent country like India.