Mains Marathon

• Define climate change and state the increase in natural disasters in recent years.
• Discuss the trends of disasters and future projections of disasters.
• Discuss how climate change is responsible for the increase of natural disasters.
• Conclude suitably.

Answer

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. These shifts may be natural, such as through variations in the solar cycle. According to the UN, there have been 7,348 natural disasters between 2000 and 2019, claiming 1.23 lives, affecting 4.2 billion people and costing the global economy some $2.97 trillion and climate change is largely to blame for a near doubling of natural disasters in the past 20 years. The sharp increase was largely attributable to a rise in climate-related disasters, including extreme weather events like floods, drought and storms.

Data that supports how climate change increases natural disasters

• Frequency of natural disasters:
  • Between 1970 and 2000, reports of medium- and large-scale disasters averaged around 90–100 per year, but between 2001 and 2020, the reported number of such events increased to 350–500 per year.
  • These included geophysical disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes, climate- and weather-related disasters, and outbreaks of biological hazards including crop pests and epidemics.
• Future Projections:
  • If current trends continue, the number of disasters per year globally may increase from around 400 in 2015 to 560 per year by 2030 – a projected increase of 40% during the lifetime of the Sendai Framework.
  • For droughts, current trends indicate a likely increase of more than 30% between 2001 and 2030 (from an average of 16 drought events per year during 2001–2010 to 21 per year by 2030).
  • This is further substantiated by climate projections, including the scientific evidence provided by the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report that points to increases in heatwaves, more intense floods and droughts, and a 7% increase in extreme daily precipitation events to 2030 (IPCC, 2021a).
  • Based on current trends, the world is set to exceed the Paris Agreement’s target of 1.5°C global average maximum temperature increases by the early 2030s, further accelerating the pace and severity of hazard events.

Climate change is responsible for increasing natural disasters by

• Severe weather events: The changing climate is influencing the behavior of the jet stream, which has the effect of localizing weather systems for weeks at a time, causing prolonged rainfall, drought, frost or heat. Tropical storms will likely become more impactful, with higher wind-speeds, greater aerial extent, changing their typical paths and becoming extra tropical storms or rainstorm flooding events when they eventually hit land.
• Sea-Level Rise: Coastal areas will see continued sea-level rise throughout the 21st century, resulting in coastal erosion and more frequent and severe flooding in low-lying areas. More than 50% of the sea level rise is due to thermal expansion.
• Precipitation & Drought: Every additional 0.5 °C of warming will increase hot extremes, extreme precipitation and drought. Additional warming will also weaken the Earth’s carbon sinks present in plants, soils, and the ocean.
• Heat Extremes: Heat extremes have increased while cold extremes have decreased, and these trends will continue over the coming decades over Asia. Heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent during the 21st century over South Asia.
• Receding Snowline & Melting Glaciers: Retreating snowlines and melting glaciers is a cause for alarm as this can cause a change in the water cycle, the precipitation patterns, increased floods as well as an increased scarcity of water in the future in the states across the Himalayas. The level of temperature rise in the mountains and glacial melt is unprecedented in 2,000 years.
• Monsoon: Changes in monsoon precipitation are also expected, with both annual and summer monsoon precipitation projected to increase.
• Infectious diseases: By 2050, mosquitoes that carry vector-borne diseases like Malaria could reach an estimated 500 million people. Climate change has led to a loss in biodiversity, resulting in increased transmission and incidence of disease. Due to altered climate patterns, urbanization and deforestation bats and rodents, which are responsible for 60 percent of the diseases transmitted from animals to humans, have flourished.
• Wildfires: By 2030, fire season could be three months longer in areas already exposed to wildfires. In Western Australia, for example, this would add up to three months of days with high wildfire potential.
• Cyclones: Under 2.5°C of global warming, the most devastating storms are projected to occur up to twice as often as today. Rising temperatures and warmer seas mean more water vapor evaporates into the atmosphere, providing fuel for hurricanes, typhoons and torrential rain.

Mitigating climate change is the solution to reduce the impacts of natural disasters. Mitigating climate change is about reducing the release of greenhouse gas emissions. Mitigation strategies include retrofitting buildings to make them more energy efficient; adopting renewable energy sources like solar, wind and small hydro; helping cities develop more sustainable transport such as bus rapid transit, electric vehicles, and biofuels; and promoting more sustainable uses of land and forests.