Outer Space: Innovation, Security, and Sustainability | 26 Oct 2024

From Neil Armstrong's historic lunar steps to SpaceX's revolutionary 'chopsticks' catching its descending booster, humanity's space ambitions have taken quantum leaps in innovation and cost-effectiveness. The paradigm shift from expendable rockets to reusable spacecraft, pioneered by private players like SpaceX, has dramatically reduced launch costs while expanding possibilities for space exploration. As India strengthens its own space capabilities through ISRO and emerging private players, the focus must be on fostering a robust R&D ecosystem that can drive similar technological breakthroughs. 

What are the Recent Developments Shaping Space Sector Across the Globe?  

• Commercialization of Space Launch Services: In the past 4 years, SpaceX has launched 13 human spaceflight missions, safely flying 50 crewmembers to and from Earth’s orbit, reducing launch costs to approximately $67 million per Falcon Heavy mission.  
  • SpaceX demonstrated reusable rocket technology by launching one of its Falcon 9 boosters for the 20th time recently.  
  • This commercialization has dropped launch costs, with the cost of heavy launches to Low-Earth orbit (LEO) has drastically come down from $65,000 per kg to just $1,500 per kg, according to an estimate from McKinsey. 
  • Space tourism initiayibes like , Blue Origin's New Shepard launched six crewed flights before its 2022 incident. 
    • Billionaire Jeff Bezos embarked on a brief journey to space during the inaugural crewed flight of his rocket, New Shepard. 
    • Plans for private space stations are advancing, with Axiom planning its first module launch in 2026. 
• Rise of Small Satellite Constellations: Starlink leads with over 6,000 operational satellites as of September 2024, providing internet to over 2.3 million subscribers across 60+ countries.  
  • Amazon's Project Kuiper plans to launch 3,236 satellites by 2029.  
  • OneWeb, post-merger with Eutelsat, has deployed 634 satellites for global coverage.  
  • China's Guowang constellation plans 13,000 satellites, marking the entry of state actors into the mega-constellation race. 
• Moon Mission Renaissance: India's Chandrayaan-3 achieved a historic soft landing near the lunar south pole in August 2023, making it the fourth country to achieve this feat.  
  • Japan's SLIM mission demonstrated precise landing capabilities in January 2024. NASA's Artemis program has begun, with Artemis II scheduled for 2025, while China plans to establish a lunar research station with completion targeted between 2028 and 2035.  
  • Private companies like Intuitive Machines and Astrobotic are pioneering commercial lunar payload services. 
• Mars Exploration Advancement: India’s Mangalyaan, UAE's Hope probe, NASA's Perseverance rover, and China's Tianwen-1/Zhurong missions are key major advancements.  
  • The Rosalind Franklin rover is slated for a launch to Mars in 2028.  
  • This mission aims to explore the Martian surface in search of signs of past life and to gather crucial data about the planet's geology and environment. 
• Defense Space Capabilities: The U.S. Space Force received a $30 billion budget for FY2024, focusing on space domain awareness and resilient satellite networks.  
  • India established the Defence Space Agency and demonstrated ASAT capabilities through Mission Shakti.  
    • Also, India is planning to launch its own space station by 2030, 
  • China's continued development of counter space capabilities, including the SJ-21 satellite with potential robotic arm technology, has prompted increased global focus on space security. 
• Deep Space Exploration: NASA's OSIRIS-REx successfully returned asteroid samples from Bennu in 2023.  
  • ESA's JUICE mission launched to study Jupiter's moons. China announced its Tianwen-4 mission to study Neptune, marking the first dedicated mission to the ice giant.  
  • The James Webb Space Telescope continues to revolutionize our understanding of distant galaxies and exoplanets. 

What are the Key Issues Arising Out of Advancement in the Space Sector?

• Space Debris Crisis: Millions of pieces of orbital debris exist in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at least 26,000 the size of a softball or larger that could destroy a satellite on impact 
  • Russia's 2021 ASAT test created over 1,500 trackable debris pieces.  
  • The February 2022 near collision risk between Starlink and China's space station highlighted the urgent need for international traffic management.  
  • Cleanup costs are estimated at billions with current technology limited to removing only a few objects annually. 
  • The United Nations treaties, including the Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (1972) and the Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space (1976), aim to regulate space debris. 
    • However, these frameworks remain largely ineffective in enforcement. 
• Weaponization of Space: The U.S. The Space Force's 2024 budget increased by $30 billion, focusing on space warfare capabilities.  
  • Recent satellite jamming incidents during conflicts (notably in Ukraine) show increasing space-based electronic warfare.  
  • Over 80 countries own satellites and many of these countries consider access to space systems and services as important contributors to their national security, raising concerns about potential space militarization. 
    • Also, Developing nations face a "space divide" with limited access to crucial satellite services, affecting disaster management and communications. 
• Environmental Impact of Launches: Studies show rocket launches contribute to ozone depletion, with aluminum oxide particles from solid rocket motors particularly concerning.  
  • SpaceX's increased launch frequency releases significant upper atmosphere pollutants, with each Falcon 9 launch producing approximately 336 tons of CO2.  
  • Satellite re-entries are releasing increasing amounts of aluminum in the upper atmosphere. Environmental impact assessments lag behind the rapid increase in launch frequency. 
• Legal and Regulatory Gaps: The 1967 Outer Space Treaty remains inadequate for current commercial space activities.  
  • Property rights in space remain undefined, creating uncertainty for lunar and asteroid mining plans.  
  • Space tourism operates in a regulatory grey area, with the regulatory bodies struggling to define safety standards after Virgin Galactic's flight path deviation incident. 
• Space Spectrum Allocation Conflicts: There is a dramatic increase in satellite constellation applications since 2019, straining available radio frequencies.  
  • Second-gen Starlink satellites leak 30 times more radio interference, threatening astronomical observations.  
  • Developing countries struggle to protect their orbital slots and spectrum rights against larger operators. 
• Space Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Critical materials for spacecraft remain concentrated in a few countries (China controls 90% of rare earth processing). 
  • The space industry's dependence on specific regions (like Taiwan for chips) creates strategic vulnerabilities. 
  • India's import costs in the space technology sector are 12 times higher than the earnings from exports 

What Measures can be Adopted for More Balanced Development of the Space Sector?

• International Space Traffic Management Framework: Establish a UN-led Space Traffic Management authority with binding regulatory powers, similar to the International Civil Aviation Organization for aviation.  
  • Implement mandatory space debris mitigation guidelines with penalties for non-compliance. 
  • Create a global space object registration system with real-time tracking capabilities. 
  • Require collision avoidance systems for all new satellites, following OneWeb's LeoLabs Collision Avoidance.  
  • Develop international standards for satellite end-of-life disposal. 
• Space Sustainability Fund and Incentives: Create a global fund for debris removal and sustainability projects.  
  • Offer tax incentives for companies developing green propulsion systems 
  • Implement a "polluter pays" principle with orbital usage fees based on satellite lifetime and debris risk.  
  • Support development of reusable technology, noting SpaceX's achievement of reducing launch costs. 
• Democratizing Space Access: Develop regional space ports through public-private partnerships. 
  • Create technology transfer programs between established and emerging space nations, similar to ESA's successful cooperation with African space agencies.  
  • Establish international satellite data sharing protocols, following ISRO's disaster monitoring data sharing model.  
  • Support small satellite development in developing nations through technical assistance and launch quotas.  
• Enhanced Space Education and Workforce Development: Launch global space education initiatives.  
  • Establish international space universities in developing regions. Create apprenticeship programs linking traditional space agencies with the private sector, like NASA's successful Commercial Crew program model.  
  • Support STEM education focusing on space technology in developing nations through scholarship programs. 
• Environmental Protection Measures: Mandate environmental impact assessments for all launches, measuring upper atmosphere effects.  
  • Require use of green propulsion systems. Establish space environment monitoring network tracking launch impacts on atmosphere.  
  • Create recycling requirements for space hardware. Implement carbon offset requirements for space activities. 
• Legal and Regulatory Framework Modernization: Update Outer Space Treaty through additional protocols addressing commercial space activities.  
  • Establish a clear property rights framework for space resources while protecting scientific interests.  
  • Develop standardized safety regulations for space tourism, learning from Virgin Galactic incidents. Implement cybersecurity standards for space infrastructure protection.

Conclusion:

The exponential advancements in space technology have broadened humanity's capabilities but also pose significant challenges, from space debris to regulatory gaps. For a sustainable and balanced global space ecosystem, collaborative frameworks, democratized access, and robust regulatory measures are essential. India, leveraging both ISRO and private partnerships, has the potential to emerge as a major global player in space exploration.