Assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani | 08 Jan 2020

Recently, the top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani (the commander of the Al-Quds Force of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC) was assassinated by the US during his visit to Iraq.

The assassination of Qassem Soleimani may spark a full-blown war between the US and Iran as self-preservation or protecting the lives of the top leaders is the primary objective of any regime. The spiralling of the US-Iran tensions also puts India in a difficult spot.

US-Iran Tensions in current times

• The policy of maximum pressure: In May 2018, US President Donald Trump abandons the nuclear deal and reinstated economic sanctions against Iran and threatening to do the same to countries and firms that continue buying its oil.
• The policy of strategic patience: Iran acted with restraint, with thinking that abiding by the nuclear deal it could get economic favour from EU. However, this policy failed to work for Iran and thereby it began a counter-pressure campaign.
• In June 2019, Iranian forces shoot down a US military drone over the Strait of Hormuz and then began the cycle of response and escalation between the two countries.

Possible Impact of US-Iran Conflict

• Destabilisation of West Asia:
  
  • West Asia has already been ravaged by past conflicts like the Syrian civil war, War against ISIS.
  • Possibility of war between the US and Iran can further lead the region into destabilisation.
  • Further, this may enhance the sectarian divide in the region like in Iraq.
• Shock in Oil Supplies
  
  • Instability in the region can impact global oil supplies which in turn can affect the global production and trade.
  • Global oil prices have already seen a 4% rise within hours of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani.
• Disruption in Afghan Peace Process
  
  • Afghan Peace Process is already in jeopardy due to hasty American withdrawal from Afghanistan.
  • US-Iran conflict can also hamper connectivity to Afghanistan (via Iran).
• Intensification of Regional Rivalries
  
  • Saudi Arabia and Israel are strategic allies of the US, the rising tension between the US and Iran will mean other regional players will also be involved.
  • As these countries are engaged in competition for influence, a war between these two nations can spread to a larger region.

Impact on India

• Oil Supply: The conflict can affect oil supplies in the country.
  
  • India imports 84% of the oil it needs. Thus, a spike in the price of oil makes a big difference not just to domestic cost conditions but also to the balance of payments.
  • India’s foreign exchange reserves are relatively comfortable, at over $450 billion, and can easily cover 9-10 months’ imports at current prices. An increase in the price of oil would have to be both sharp and sustained in order to erode this buffer
• Diaspora: Large Indian diaspora in West Asia, and particularly the Persian Gulf might be affected due to the tension in the region.
  
  • Their safety will have to be a priority. India has in the past organised big evacuations — famously from Kuwait at the time of the first Gulf War, and more recently from Libya.
  • However, the scale of any evacuation from the Gulf would on this occasion be even larger even if it remains relatively unlikely.
  • A downturn caused by tensions might cause a large number of guest workers to return to India — and to stop remitting money.
• Connectivity: Strategic connectivity interests of India might be affected. This includes the port of Chabahar in Iran, linking India to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
  
  • The project which received a rare exemption from US sanctions, but in the event of an escalation of tensions the viability of other connectivity projects will also get compromised.
• Last but not least, after Iran, India has perhaps the largest number of the world’s Shia population and the possibility of some of them being radicalised by this event cannot be ruled out.

Conclusion

Lord Krishna in Bhagwat Gita held that War shall be the last option, therefore, both the US and Iran must act with strategic restraint as any crisis in West Asia will not only affect the region as a whole but will have a detrimental impact on global affairs as well.