Adapting to the Monsoon's New Normal | 28 Jun 2024

India's monsoon pattern is undergoing a significant shift, characterized by delayed onset, below-normal rainfall in June, proper commencement only in July, and extended heavy rainfall into September. This year's monsoon exemplifies this trend, arriving late in most regions and progressing slowly. While the exact causes are not fully understood, climate change factors such as delayed western disturbances and Arctic Sea ice melting are believed to play a role. The new pattern brings erratic rainfall distribution, more dry days, and unusually high night temperatures, posing substantial challenges for agriculture and water management across the country.

This evolving scenario necessitates both immediate mitigation measures to protect farmers from economic losses and long-term adaptation strategies for water management, especially for reservoirs that supply drinking water to the plains during summer months. The climate crisis underscores the urgent need for policies at national and local levels to address these emerging threats effectively.

What is the Significance of Monsoon for India? 

• Agricultural Backbone:The monsoon is the lifeblood of Indian agriculture. With 61% of Indian farmers dependent on rainfall for agriculture, the monsoon directly impacts food security and rural livelihoods. 

  • A well-distributed monsoon is crucial for the 55% of India's net sown area (139.42 million hectares) that is rain-fed, supporting 34 of the country's 40 major crops. 

  • This heavy reliance on monsoon rains makes it a key determinant of agricultural productivity and, by extension, the nation's economic health.

• Water Resource Management: India receives 70-90% of its annual rainfall during the four monsoon months (June to September). 

  • This concentrated period of precipitation is critical for replenishing water bodies, including rivers, lakes, and groundwater aquifers. 

  • The monsoon plays a vital role in water resource management, influencing irrigation capabilities, drinking water availability, and hydroelectric power generation throughout the year.

• Economic Ripple Effects: The monsoon's impact extends far beyond agriculture. A good monsoon year typically boosts rural incomes, leading to increased demand for consumer goods, automobiles, and services. 

  • Conversely, a poor monsoon can lead to inflation, particularly in food prices, affecting the entire economy. 

  • The monsoon's performance often influences monetary policy decisions and government spending priorities.

    • Monsoon is the real Finance Minister of India - Pranab Mukherjee
• Ecological Balance: The monsoon is crucial for maintaining India's diverse ecosystems. It supports the country's biodiversity by nurturing forests, wetlands, and other natural habitats. 

  • The timing and intensity of the monsoon influence wildlife migration patterns, breeding cycles, and overall ecosystem health. 

  • Any significant alteration in monsoon patterns can have far-reaching consequences on India's flora and fauna.

• Climate Regulation: The Indian monsoon system is a key component of global climate regulation. It affects atmospheric circulation patterns far beyond the Indian subcontinent.

  • The monsoon's interaction with phenomena like El Niño and La Niña has implications for weather patterns across Asia and even globally. 

• Cultural and Social Significance: Beyond its environmental and economic importance, the monsoon holds deep cultural significance in India. 

  • It influences festivals (like Pongal, Baisakhi), traditions, and even folk music (like Purvaiya ) and literature. 

  • The arrival of monsoon has been celebrated in Indian culture for millennia, shaping social practices and community rituals. 

What are the Implications of Changing Monsoon Patterns for India? 

• Agricultural Disruption: Changing monsoon patterns disrupt traditional cropping cycles, potentially decreasing yields and increasing crop failures. 
  • For instance, in 2018, Kharif sowing was 9.7% lower as monsoon delay over Central and North India. 
  • These changes could significantly impact food security and the livelihoods of millions of farmers across India.
• Water Scarcity and Management Challenges: Irregular monsoons intensify water scarcity issues, straining both surface and groundwater resources.

  • In 2019, Chennai faced a severe water crisis when its four main reservoirs dried up due to monsoon failure.

  • The 2023 monsoon ended with live water storage at 74% of the capacity of India's 150 major reservoirs.
• Economic Impact: Climate change due to rising temperature and changing patterns of monsoon rainfall in India could cost the Indian economy 2.8 % of its GDP.
  • Increased costs for farmers (irrigation, crop insurance) could lead to higher rural debt and potential shifts in rural-urban migration patterns.
• Public Health Concerns: Altered monsoon patterns can change the distribution of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue. Increased flooding risk may lead to more water-borne diseases, while food insecurity could affect nutrition levels. 

  • Mental health impacts due to climate-related stress and economic uncertainties are likely to increase. 

• Biodiversity and Ecosystem Changes: Shifting monsoon patterns can alter habitats, affecting flora and fauna distribution. 
  • The Western Ghats, a biodiversity hotspot, has seen a  decline in rainfall over the last century, affecting its unique ecosystem. 
  • In the Sundarbans, changing rainfall patterns and rising sea levels have led to increased salinity, threatening mangrove forests and the endangered Bengal tiger population.
• Impact on Monsoon-Dependent Energy Production: India's hydroelectric power generation, which contributes about 12% of the total electricity production, faces unpredictability due to changing monsoon patterns. 

  • Fluctuations in reservoir levels impact not just power generation but also the grid stability, challenging India's renewable energy goals and necessitating a re-evaluation of the energy mix.

  • For instance, in the southern region of India, which contributes approximately 22% of the total hydro energy generated, low rainfall has indeed played a role in decreased hydropower capacity in 2023-24.

• Impact on Traditional Knowledge Systems: Indigenous and local knowledge systems, which have long guided agricultural and water management practices based on predictable monsoon patterns, are becoming less reliable. 

  • This erosion of traditional ecological knowledge presents a challenge of cultural erosion and reduced sustainable resource management practices.

How India can Adapt to Changing Monsoon Patterns? 

• Decentralised Climate Adaptation: There is a need to decentralize India’s vast climate adaptation requiring each state and union territory to assess climate risks and develop mitigation and adaptation strategies.
  • All 766 districts should create plans based on microclimatic changes and socio-economic data, addressing crop insurance, power supplies, and groundwater quality.
  • The CEEW's support for Thane, Maharashtra, in developing a risk-informed heat action plan this year can serve as a model for others.
• Adaptive Crop Genetics and Bioengineering: Developing climate-resilient crop varieties through advanced genetic engineering and CRISPR technology. 

  • Create crops with improved water-use efficiency, heat tolerance, and ability to thrive in shorter or longer growing seasons. 

  • Establish a national seed bank of adaptive varieties and promote decentralized, community-led seed preservation efforts to maintain agricultural biodiversity.

• Precision Agriculture and AI-Driven Farming: Implementing large-scale use of IoT sensors, drones, and satellite imaging for real-time crop and soil monitoring. 

  • Utilize artificial intelligence to analyze this data alongside weather predictions to provide hyper-local, crop-specific recommendations to farmers. 

  • Develop AI models that can predict optimal planting times and crop choices based on evolving monsoon patterns.

• Leveraging Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis Reanalysis: While the IMD provides data at various administrative levels, the current network lacks the density for granular mapping. 
  • Using Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis reanalysis data, we can mapped monsoon variability for all tehsils in India for.
  • Local decision-makers can utilize these metrics to enhance disaster preparedness and response.
  • These plans should integrate tehsil-level climate data with socio-economic and sector-specific information for detailed risk assessments in agriculture, water, and energy sectors. 
• Urban Rainfall Harvesting and Water Banking: Transform cities into massive water catchment areas by mandating rain-harvesting systems for all buildings. 

  • Implement a "water credit" system where excess harvested water can be "banked" or traded, incentivizing conservation.

  • Developing Sponge cities and underground water storage facilities in urban areas to capture monsoon rains for year-round use.]

• Floating Agriculture and Aquaponics: Promote floating farms and gardens in flood-prone areas, adapting techniques from places like Bangladesh.

  • Integrate these with advanced aquaponics systems to create resilient food production units that can thrive in both excess water and drought conditions.

  • This can turn flood-prone areas from liabilities into productive assets.

• Bioengineered Coastal Defense Systems: Develop "living shorelines" using genetically modified mangroves and other coastal plants that can rapidly adapt to changing salinity and water levels. 

  • Combine these with artificial reef structures to create dynamic, self-repairing coastal defense systems that can evolve with changing monsoon and sea-level patterns.

• Decentralized Energy Micro-grids: Develop a network of localized, renewable energy microgrids that can adapt to changing monsoon patterns.

  • These could combine solar, wind, and micro-hydro power sources, automatically adjusting to seasonal variations and ensuring energy security in the face of changing rainfall patterns.