Recovery Curve and Case Rate Curve

• 15 Apr 2020

Why in News

The recovery rate of Covid-19 patients in India aligns closely with the curve of confirmed cases, with a lag of two weeks, according to an examination of absolute numbers of the cases.

Key Points

• For making the global comparison, data from the Johns Hopkins University database was used.
• Mapping the global number of Covid-19 patients who recovered largely mimics the global case load, with a 14-day lag.
  
  • However, the high recovery rate does not take into account the severity of the disease during the recovery process.
• Indian graph shows that the mortality rate in India is lower than global rates, so far.
• The graph for global rates shows the overall recovery rate as significantly flatter than the caseload.
  
  • The cases worldwide are growing exponentially but the global recovery rate has begun to fall flat.
  • Globally, there is considerable research on the mortality of Covid-19 but there is less literature to help understand the patterns of recovery.
• Science of the Curves:
  
  • The two curves would align exactly if everyone who fell sick on Day 1 recovered 14 days later.
  • Any discrepancy between the two lines is either due to people who fell sick and died, or people who recovered earlier or later than the mean period of 14 days.
  • People who recover before 14 days and the people who recover after 14 days, almost balance out each other and do not hamper the curve.
  • This leaves only accounting for those who die.
    
    • This is probably why the recovered curve is lower than the infected curve in the global figure.
• Recovery Time for Covid-19
  
  • There is no established recovery time of Covid-19 patients.
    
    • Recovery is measured by a patient no longer showing symptoms and having two consecutive negative tests for the virus at least one day apart.
  • According to an early World Health Organisation (WHO) report, mild cases have a recovery time of roughly two weeks and severe cases have the recovery time of somewhere between three to six weeks.
  • However, countries measure recovery differently.
  • The number of the global recoveries will inevitably be an estimate in the absence of global recovery rates by the WHO and uniform methods of reporting recoveries.

Source: IE