India’s Ageing Population

• 22 Oct 2024

For Prelims: Working-Age Population, World Health Organization, Dependency Ratio, World Bank, Replacement Level of Fertility, Under-Five Mortality Rate One-Child Policy, Pension System, Internal migration. 

For Mains: Concerns associated with the ageing population and population decline, Measures needed to deal with them. 

Source: IE 

Why in News?

Recently, some politicians of India’s Southern state expressed concerns about the ageing and shrinking population and emphasised a law to incentivise residents of the state to have more children.  

• The ageing population is a demographic trend with an increasing proportion of individuals aged 65 and older compared to the working-age population (15-64). 

What do Data Say on Ageing and Overall Population Size in India? 

• Overall Population Increase: India's population is projected to increase by 31.1 crore (311 million) between 2011 and 2036. 
• Concentration of Growth: Almost half i.e., 17 crore will be added in five states of Bihar, UP, Maharashtra, West Bengal, and Madhya Pradesh.  
• Regional Disparities: Uttar Pradesh is projected to account for 19% of total population growth, while the five Southern states Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu will contribute only 29 million, or 9% of the total growth. 
• Ageing Population Trends: The number of individuals aged 60 years and older is expected to more than double from 10 crore (100 million) in 2011 to 23 crore (230 million) by 2036, with their share of the total population rising from 8.4% to 14.9%. 

 

• State Variations in Ageing Population: In Kerala, the proportion of individuals aged 60 and older is projected to rise from 13% in 2011 to 23% by 2036, meaning nearly 1 in 4 individuals will be in this age group. 
  • In Uttar Pradesh, the share of the 60+ population is expected to rise from 7% in 2011 to 12% in 2036. 
• North-South Divide: The increase in the proportion of people aged 60 and older will be smaller in Northern states compared to the South. 
  • Southern states transitioned to lower fertility rates earlier. E.g., Uttar Pradesh is projected to reach the Replacement Level of Fertility (2.1 children per woman) in 2025, over two decades later than Andhra Pradesh (2004).

Note

The above data is based on the latest population projections from a 2020 report by a technical group within the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. 

What are the Causes of Ageing and Shrinking Population? 

• Contraception and Family Planning: The increased availability of contraception and abortion services allows individuals to have greater control over their reproductive choices. 
• Women's Economic Participation: As women have increasingly entered the workforce, many have chosen to delay childbirth or forego having children altogether.  
  • This shift is often driven by career aspirations, financial stability, and the pursuit of personal goals. 
• Improved Child Survival Rates: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the under-five mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births) in India declined to 34 in 2019 from 126 in 1990. 
  • Between 1990 and 2019, India achieved a 4.5% annual reduction in under-five mortality, decreasing deaths from 3.4 million in 1990 to 824,000 in 2019. 
  • Due to decline in the under-five mortality rate, people are less likely to give birth to more children. 
• Urbanisation: As more people move to urban areas, the cost of living often rises, making it more difficult for families to afford children. Urban lifestyles may also prioritise careers over family expansion. 
• Migration: Indian migration due to foreign countries like UAE and USA also leads to decline in India’s population. 

What Concerns are Associated with the Ageing Population? 

• Small Representation in Parliament: Southern states with an ageing population and consequently smaller populations fear they could end up getting penalised by way of fewer seats in Lok Sabha for having made the demographic transition before the North. 
  • Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh might gain more political representation at the expense of Southern states, affecting policy priorities. 
• Slowing GDP Growth: An ageing population often leads to a decline in the growth rate of GDP primarily due to a decrease in the labour force. 
  • Eg. In the US, the growth of the 20 to 64-year-old population is expected to decrease from 1.24% per year (1975-2015) to only 0.29% (2015-2055) leading to a corresponding decline in the growth rate of GDP and aggregate consumption. 
• High Dependency Ratio: As the population ages, there will be a higher ratio of dependents (both elderly and children) to working-age individuals which increases the burden on the working-age population (15- to 64-year-olds). 
  • According to the World Bank collection of development indicators, India’s current age dependency ratio of 47% in 2023 is expected to rise significantly. 
• Higher Public Expenditure: The cost of public programs for health care, pensions, and long-term care will increase significantly as populations age.  
  • Governments will need to raise taxes or cut benefits to manage these rising costs.  
• Intergenerational Equity Issues: Younger populations might feel unfairly taxed to support the older generation, leading to potential societal divides and a sense of injustice regarding resource allocation. 
• Pressure for Institutional Reform: As the population ages, there may be growing calls for reforms in retirement age, social security benefits, and healthcare systems. 

Shift from Population Explosion to Population Shrinkage 

• Roughly five decades ago, the main concern facing India was rapid population growth, fuelled by high levels of fertility (births per woman).  
• Over the decades, India has been able to arrest the pace of population growth which has been led by several Southern states.  
  • Andhra Pradesh achieved the Replacement Level of Fertility in 2004, making it the 5th Indian state to do so after Kerala (1988), Tamil Nadu (2000), Himachal Pradesh (2002), and West Bengal (2003). 
• Andhra Pradesh used to have a law that barred people from contesting in local polls if they had more than two children. The law was later repealed. 
• Despite lower fertility levels in individual states, India is the most populous country in the world. 

How do Countries Respond to Ageing Population? 

• China’s Three-Child Policy: In 2016, China moved to allow its citizens to have two children and in 2021, China announced that families are permitted to have three children. 
  • From 1980 to 2016, China imposed a one-child policy, which slowed population growth. 
• Japan's Parental Leave: It includes mandating twelve-month parental leave, offering direct financial aid to parents, and investing heavily in subsidised childcare. 
• Extended Retirement Age: Some countries, such as France and the Netherlands, extended the retirement age or the age at which people are eligible for pension benefits to alleviate pressure on pension systems. 
• Open Immigration Policy: Australia, Canada, and other countries have adopted more open immigration policies to counter labour shortages due to their declining populations. 

What can be done to Arrest Ageing and Shrinking Population? 

• Pro-Natalist Policies: Scandinavian countries have demonstrated that family support, childcare, gender equality, and parental leave policies can help maintain fertility rates. 
  • Proper government funding of child healthcare and education can motivate people to have more children. 
• Leveraging Internal Migration: Internal migration between the more populous Northern states and the more developed Southern states can bring in working-age individuals, mitigating the impact of an ageing population. 
  • States receiving migrants would benefit from an immediate influx of labour without the need to invest in education and upbringing for young families. 
• Promoting Gender Equality: Gender equality initiatives promoting shared parenting responsibilities can potentially lead to increased fertility rates. 

Drishti Mains Question: 

Discuss the causes of shrinking populations in certain states of India. What are the potential socio-economic implications of this demographic shift?

UPSC Civil Services Examination Previous Year’s Question (PYQs) 

Mains 

Q. Discuss the main objectives of Population Education and point out the measures to achieve them in India in detail. (2021) 

Q. ‘’Empowering women is the key to control the population growth.’’ Discuss. (2019)

Q. Critically examine whether the growing population is the cause of poverty or poverty is the main cause of population increase in India. (2015)