El-Nino Threatens Monsoon | 03 Jul 2019

According to the India Meteorological Department, the deficiency in rainfall in June was 33%.

• With the El-Nino phenomenon being observed since the beginning of 2019, there are fears that this might lead to a deficient monsoon.

• Deficient rainfall in June is devastating for farmers in large reaches of the country who have sown in expectation of rains.
• This shortfall is observed not only in aggregate but also across regions.
• Although a direct correlation between the two (rainfall deficiency & El-Nino) has not been established, rainfall data from 2000 onwards shows that monsoon rainfall is heavily impacted in the El-Nino years.
• In five of these six El-Nino years (2002,2004,2006,2009,2014,2015), the monsoon rainfall was lower than the long-term average by 12% to 23%.