OECD’S Forecast for Global Economy in 2060

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recently released a research analysis- The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060.

• World real GDP growth will decline from 3.5% in 2018 to 2% in 2060.
• By 2060, India, China, and Indonesia combined will represent almost half of the world’s economic output.

Findings of Research

• World growth slows and weight of emerging economies rises
  • By 2060, the global real GDP growth rate will decrease. The share of Emerging market in Global GDP will increase.
  • China’s share of world output will be at its peak during the 2030s at about 27% and will decline thereafter, while India’s share in Global GDP will keep increasing.
  • By the mid-2030s, India’s contribution to global GDP will be the largest and will surpass that of China.
  • Causes for the decline in global GDP: Decline in working age population due to population ageing will decrease employment rate as older people are less likely to be employed than middle-aged people.

• Prospects for Emerging Market Economies 
  • The world’s economic center of gravity continues to shift towards Asia
    • The center of gravity of world economic activity will move from North America and Europe towards Asia.
    • Therefore, countries that are geographically closer to large markets like India and China will become less economically remote and will benefit from easier access to their markets.
  • Living standards continue to improve
    • Living standards in all countries will continue to improve with rising GDP and will gradually move towards that of developed countries.
    • But living standard in BRICS and low-income countries will remain below and almost half to that of the USA in 2060.
  • Institutional reforms would speed the convergence of emerging market economies
    • The BRICS countries have scope for improvement in the quality of governance and level of educational attainment.
    • If BRICS improve quality of institutions and raise educational attainment, then living standard in BRICS will be 30% to 50% higher in 2060 than now.
    • Institutions are important because they can create positive incentives for business investment, technology adoption, and human capital accumulation.
    • Institutions may encourage people to work towards the growth-enhancing environment, or they may lead to corruption and personal gain at the expense of the rest of society.
    • Education will enhance the knowledge and skills in individuals and also will encourage:
      1. participation in groups.
      2. opens doors to job opportunities.
      3. makes individuals better aware of their rights.
      4. improves health.
      5. reduces poverty.

• Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development
  • The OECD is an intergovernmental economic organisation, founded to stimulate economic progress and world trade.
    Most OECD members are high-income economies with a very high Human Development Index (HDI) and are regarded as developed countries.
  • Founded: 1961.
  • Headquarters: Paris, France.
  • Total Members: 36.
  • India is not a member, but a key economic partner.
  • Reports and Indices by OECD
    • Government at a Glance 2017 report.
    • International Migration Outlook.
    • OECD Better Life Index.
• Emerging Market Economy: An emerging market economy is a nation's economy that is progressing toward becoming an advanced economy.
• BRICS is an international grouping consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

The Urban Commute: A Summary

The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) has carried out a comparative and diagnostic analysis of key cities of India on how they are positioned on clean and low carbon mobility.

• In a report titled ‘The Urban Commute and How it Contributes to Pollution and Energy’, the CSE assessed 14 cities which are among the most populous in different regions, based on emmission of carbon dioxide, particulate matter and nitrogen oxides, as well as energy guzzling from urban commuting.
• The study tried to understand how the way people travel in cities contributes to air pollution and energy consumption.
• It took two approaches to rank the cities — one based on overall emission and energy consumption and the other on per person trip emissions and energy consumption.

Findings

• The key factors that influence emissions and energy guzzling are:
  • Level of motorization,
  • Travel demand based on population,
  • Share of different modes of transport (public transport, walking cycling and personal vehicles),
  • Average length of daily travel trips, and
  • Quality of vehicle technologies and fuels.
• Reasons for low overall emissions are:
  • Lower population, much lesser vehicle numbers and vehicle miles travelled.
  • Low average trip length of different modes.
  • Robust bus and bicycle programmes with an enhanced bus fleet, a bus rapid transit system and public bike sharing schemes.
  • Example: Bhopal
• Kolkata and Mumbai emit least among six megacities due to high usage of public transport and walking.
  • Kolkata has short travel distances due to its compact city design, high street density and restricted availability of land for roads and parking.
  • The income levels are not the only reason for deciding a population’s dependence on automobiles. E.g.: Mumbai
  • Both Kolkata and Mumbai have a unique advantage of a public transport system well integrated with existing land use patterns.
• Delhi, despite being the third highest for high share of public transport trips, is at the bottom as overall emissions and fuel use are highest.
  • This is due to the sheer number of people, high volume of travel and personal vehicles, and long trip distances.
  • This negates per trip emissions improvement derived from its CNG programme and limited public transport strategy.
• Megacities of Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai score poor too.
  • Although they have lower share of public transport compared to Delhi and yet have scored better than it only because of total travel volumes are comparatively lower given their population levels.
  • With growth and without adequate action they can get worse in future.
• Though metropolitan cities have scored better than megacities due to lower population, lower travel volume and vehicle numbers, they are at risk due to much higher share of personal vehicle trips and high growth rate.

Concerns

• Increase in greenhouse gas emissions from transport sector is highest among all other sectors in India. Urban traffic is also the source of very high health damaging toxic substances.

• Motorization in India is explosive. Initially, it took 60 years (1951–2008) for India to cross the mark of 105 million registered vehicles. But thereafter, the same number was added in a mere six years (2009–15).

• At the same time, the share of public transport is expected to decrease from 75.5 per cent in 2000–01, to 44.7 per cent in 2030–31.

• Growing dependence on personal vehicles for urban commuting can lead to irreversible negative trends and damage.

Way Forward

• Cities that have a public transport spine, compact urban form, short travel distances, lesser number and usage of personal vehicles and vehicle miles travelled, emit a lot less greenhouse gases and toxic pollutants and guzzle less energy.
• Therefore, for clean and low carbon mobility, cities need policies to stop urban sprawl; reduce distances between residence, jobs and recreation through compact urban forms; scale up integrated public transport, walking and cycling; and put restrains on use of personal vehicles to avert pollution and climate crisis.

Important Facts for Prelims (25 August 2018)

Madhubani Painting

• Recently the Bihar Sampark Kranti Express has been painted with Madhubani Art.
• Practised in Bihar and Nepal, Madhubani painting is one of the oldest and most famous Indian art forms. It is also known as Mithila or Madhubani art.
• The style of this painting includes geometrical patterns.
• The colours used in Madhubani paintings comprise natural extracts from plants and other natural sources. E.g.: Black colour is obtained by mixing soot with cow dung; blue from indigo; white from rice powder; orange from palasha flowers, etc.
• The colours are applied flat with no shading and no empty space is left.
• The colours are usually dark and bright with pigments like lampblack and ochre.
• These paintings are not made with modern brushes but rather with twigs, matchsticks, and fingers.
• Traces of Madhubani art can also be noticed in the Ramayana, the Indian epic. It is based on the themes which depict the life of Hindu deities like Krishna, Rama, Lakshmi, Shiva, Durga, and Saraswati.
• The themes & designs widely painted are of Hindu deities such as Krishna, Rama, Siva, Durga, Lakshmi, Saraswati, Sun and Moon, Tulasi plant, court scenes, wedding scenes, social happenings etc.
• Also, heavenly bodies like the Sun and the Moon often form the centrepiece of Madhubani paintings.
• This style of painting has been traditionally done by the women of the region, though today men are also involved to meet the demand.
• Few prominent artists are Karpuri Devi, Mahalaxmi and Dulari.

Great Pacific Garbage Patch

• The Great Pacific Garbage Patch, also known as the Pacific Trash Vortex, spans waters from the West Coast of North America to Japan. It is a collection of marine debris in the North Pacific Ocean.
• Marine debris is litter that ends up in oceans, seas, and other large bodies of water.
• GPGP is almost entirely made up of tiny bits of plastic, called microplastics which are non-biodegradable and harmful for marine life and human beings as well.