Terror in Jammu & Kashmir: A Shifting Trend and Pattern

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Terror in Jammu & Kashmir: A Shifting Trend and Pattern

12 Aug 2024

The state of terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) has evolved significantly over the years, reflecting both local and international dynamics. Historically, J&K has been a hotspot for insurgency, with roots tracing back to the late 1980s. Understanding the changing trends and patterns of terrorism in this region is crucial for formulating effective counter-terrorism strategies.

Historical Background

The insurgency in J&K began in the late 1980s, catalyzed by political discontent and external support from Pakistan. Major events, such as the 1989 kidnapping of Rubaiya Sayeed, the daughter of then Union Home Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, marked the beginning of a violent phase. Over time, militant groups like Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Taiba emerged, significantly shaping the conflict's dynamics.

Changing Nature of Terrorist Groups

Over the past few years, there has been a noticeable shift in the landscape of terrorist organizations in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). Traditional groups like Hizbul Mujahideen have seen a decline, with newer, more radical entities gaining prominence. Here are some recent facts and figures to illustrate these changes:

Decline of Traditional Groups:
- Hizbul Mujahideen: Once a dominant force in J&K, Hizbul Mujahideen has seen a reduction in its operational capabilities and recruitment. The group's decline is attributed to successful counter-terrorism operations by Indian security forces and the elimination of key leaders.
Rise of New Entities:
- The Resistance Front (TRF): Formed in 2019, TRF has emerged as a significant player in the region. It is believed to be a front for Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and has been involved in several high-profile attacks.
- People's Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF): Another recent entrant, PAFF has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks and is suspected of having links with Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).
Influence of Global Jihadist Groups:
- ISIS and Al-Qaeda: Both groups have attempted to establish a foothold in J&K. While their impact remains limited compared to local groups, there have been instances of propaganda and recruitment efforts targeting the region. For example, the establishment of the "Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)" and attempts to inspire lone-wolf attacks demonstrate their ongoing influence.
Some Recent Incidents:
- Operational Terrorists: According to the Director General of Police (DGP) of Jammu & Kashmir, around 60 to 70 terrorists are currently active across the Line of Control (LoC).
- Terrorist Incidents: In 2023, there have been a total of 50 terror-related events in the first half, resulting in 50 deaths, including 29 terrorists, nine civilians, and 11 security forces personnel.
- Infiltration Attempts: The number of infiltration attempts has significantly decreased, with zero net infiltrations reported in the first six months of 2023, down from 141 instances in 2019.

Tactics and Strategies

The tactics employed by terrorist groups in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) have significantly evolved over the years, transitioning from traditional guerrilla warfare and cross-border infiltration to more sophisticated and varied methods. Recent trends in tactics and strategies include the use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), targeted killings, lone-wolf attacks, and advanced technology such as drones and encrypted communications.

Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs)
- Increased Use: There has been a notable increase in the use of IEDs in J&K. These devices are often used to target security forces convoys and patrols. The 2019 Pulwama attack, where a suicide bomber used an IED-laden vehicle to kill 40 CRPF personnel, is one of the deadliest examples of this tactic.
- Recent Incidents: In 2023, several IED attacks were reported, including an incident in January where an IED exploded near a security forces patrol in Pulwama, causing injuries to several personnel.
Targeted Killings
- Focus on Local Leaders and Security Personnel: Terrorist groups have increasingly focused on targeted killings of local political leaders, security personnel, and civilians suspected of being informants. These attacks aim to instill fear and disrupt local governance and security efforts.
- High-Profile Attacks: In October 2022, terrorists killed a local leader and his family members in Kulgam, highlighting the continued threat to political figures in the region.
Lone-Wolf Attacks
- Rising Trend: Lone-wolf attacks, where individuals carry out attacks independently inspired by terrorist ideology, have been on the rise. These attacks are harder to predict and prevent due to their spontaneous nature.
- Examples: Instances of lone-wolf attacks include the 2021 killing of police officers in Srinagar by individuals not directly affiliated with any known terrorist groups but inspired by extremist propaganda.
Technological Advancements
- Drones: The use of drones by terrorist groups has become a significant concern. Drones are used for surveillance, dropping weapons, and even conducting attacks. In 2022, drones were used to drop IEDs near a military installation in Jammu, marking a new tactic in the terrorist arsenal.
- Encrypted Communications: Terrorists have increasingly adopted encrypted messaging apps and other secure communication channels to evade surveillance and coordinate attacks. This has complicated intelligence-gathering efforts by security forces.
- Infiltration Tactics: Terrorists have also utilized advanced methods to infiltrate across the Line of Control (LoC), including the use of tunnels. In 2023, several tunnels were discovered in the Samba and Kathua districts, used for smuggling arms and infiltrating militants.

Local vs Foreign Militants

Shift in Composition of Militant Groups

Over recent years, there has been a significant shift in the composition of militant groups operating in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). The proportion of local recruits within these groups has increased, altering the dynamics of the conflict in several ways. This shift is driven by various factors, including social media's role in radicalization, changing recruitment strategies, and the evolving political landscape.

Increase in Local Recruits

Statistics on Local Recruitment:
- According to security reports, the number of local youth joining militant ranks has seen a marked increase. In 2022, about 87 local youth joined militant groups, compared to 67 in 2021.
- Local recruitment peaked in 2018 with around 219 youths joining militant ranks, reflecting a significant rise in local insurgency.
Impact on Conflict Dynamics:
- Knowledge of Terrain: Local militants possess better knowledge of the terrain, making it easier for them to navigate and evade security forces. This local familiarity provides a strategic advantage in guerrilla warfare and hit-and-run tactics.
- Local Support Networks: The increase in local recruits has bolstered support networks within communities. These networks provide shelter, intelligence, and logistical support, complicating counter-insurgency operations for security forces.
Social Media and Radicalization:
- Critical Tool for Recruitment: Social media platforms have become essential tools for radicalization and recruitment. Terrorist groups use platforms like Facebook, WhatsApp, and Telegram to disseminate propaganda, recruit new members, and coordinate activities.

Foreign Militants:

Presence and Influence:
- Foreign Fighters: Despite the rise in local recruits, foreign militants, particularly from Pakistan, continue to play a significant role in the insurgency. In 2022, 56 of the 193 terrorists killed in J&K were identified as Pakistani nationals.
- Training and Expertise: Foreign militants often bring advanced training and combat experience, contributing to the operational capabilities of militant groups. They are typically involved in planning and executing high-profile attacks.

Impact of Political Developments

The abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019 was a landmark political move that significantly altered the governance and administrative landscape of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). This decision has had a profound impact on local sentiment, governance, and the pattern of militancy in the region. Here are detailed insights into how this political shift has influenced terrorism patterns:

Changes in Governance and Administration

Direct Central Administration:
- The revocation of Article 370 led to the reorganization of J&K into two Union Territories: Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh. This change brought the region under direct central administration, allowing for more streamlined governance and implementation of central laws and policies.
Development Initiatives:
- Post-abrogation, the central government has launched various development initiatives aimed at improving infrastructure, healthcare, education, and employment opportunities. These efforts are intended to integrate the region more closely with the rest of India and address long-standing economic grievances.

Mixed Impacts on Local Sentiment and Militancy

Decline in Violence in Some Areas:
- Kashmir Valley: Following the abrogation, there was an initial spike in violence, but recent data indicates a decline in terror-related incidents in the Kashmir Valley. For instance, the number of terrorist incidents dropped significantly from 614 in 2018 to 244 in 2022.
- Infiltration Attempts: The first half of 2023 saw zero net infiltrations reported in the Union Territory, a significant decrease from previous years.
Increase in Terrorist Activities in Jammu:
- Shift in Focus: Terrorist groups have increasingly shifted their focus from the heavily militarized Kashmir Valley to the Jammu region. This shift is partly due to the stringent security measures in the Valley, making it harder for terrorists to operate there.
- Recent Attacks: The Jammu region has witnessed a rise in terror attacks, with 43 attacks in 2023 and 20 in the first half of 2024. Notable incidents include the attack on a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims in Reasi in June 2024, resulting in multiple casualties.
Political and Social Ramifications:
- Local Discontent: The abrogation has led to mixed reactions among the local population. While some segments have welcomed the move, others, particularly in the Kashmir Valley, view it as an erosion of their autonomy and identity. This sentiment has been exploited by terrorist groups to fuel local recruitment and radicalization.
- Targeted Killings: There has been an increase in targeted killings of non-locals, political leaders, and security personnel, aimed at creating fear and disrupting the new administrative setup. For example, the killing of local BJP leaders and minority community members in the Valley highlights this trend

Conclusion

Understanding the shifting trends and patterns of terrorism in J&K is vital for developing effective counter-terrorism measures. A multifaceted approach that includes military, political, and socio-economic strategies is necessary to address the complex challenges in the region. Policymakers, security forces, and the community must work together to ensure long-term peace and stability.

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