Post Demise of Iran’s President - What Happens to its Political Situation?

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Post Demise of Iran’s President - What Happens to its Political Situation?

27 Aug 2024

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died on May 19 in a helicopter crash this year. Along with the President, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and six other passengers and crew died in this collision. The airplane crashed in an area with steep mountains and thick fog in the East Azerbaijan province of northwestern Iran. The authorities were returning from the inauguration of a dam on Azerbaijan's border. The sudden deaths of both Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian come at a time of internal and external challenges for the Iranian regime. Moreover, experts believe that his demise will significantly impact Iran's foreign policy in the immediate future. In the meantime, Mohammad Mokhber, the first vice president, served as interim President. And as mandated in the nation’s constitution, Iran held its elections within the next 50 days.

The new presidential elections were held on the 28^th of June and the 5^th of July, in which Masoud Pezeshkian, a reformist-backed candidate, won with 44% of the vote. He will be the ninth Iranian President. After Raisi's death, there was uncertainty surrounding the succession of the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Because of his close relationship with the Supreme Leader, many believed he was one of the leading candidates to succeed the 85-year-old Khamenei, who has held the office for 35 years. However, Ali Khamenei will continue as the Supreme Leader.

Raisi’s Path to the Office

Before being elected the president in 2021, Raisi worked for decades in the country's judiciary, working his way up to become chief justice and establishing himself as an ardent supporter of the regime.
In 1988, he was on a commission that reportedly oversaw the extrajudicial executions of about 5,000 political prisoners. He also played a crucial role in repressing the Iranian Green Movement Protests (also referred to as Persian Spring) in 2009-10.
Raisi maintained his ultraconservative and uncompromising position during his tenure as president, contributing to the nation's transition toward a more assertive foreign policy, especially in terms of relations with neighboring nations. This was accomplished, among other things, by adopting a firm stance on nuclear negotiations.
In 2017, Raisi participated in the presidential election and secured the second position, ultimately losing to the centrist president, Hassan Rouhani. In 2019, Khamenei appointed Raisi as Iran's chief justice.
He was elected president in 2021 with 62% of the vote, many abstaining from voting. Though turnout was only 49%, marking the lowest in the whole history of the Islamic Republic for a presidential election.

Iran under Raisi’s Tenure

Being a prominent member of the political elite, Raisi exerted significant influence over Iran's domestic policies. He played a crucial role in Iran's recent efforts to enhance relations with its regional rivals.
In September 2022, Iran witnessed a nationwide protest over the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Kurdish woman detained by the morality police for improper hijab. Raisi brutally crushed the protest.
- The protest lasted for three months, with protesters raising the slogan "Woman, Life, Freedom" and Death to the Dictator," referring to the supreme leader Khamenei.
- The protest was the most significant since the 2009 Green Movement.
- More than 22,000 people were arrested, and more than 500 people, including children, were killed by security forces.
Under Raisi's leadership, Iranian authorities sought to enhance Iranian influence internationally by forming partnerships with armed regional groups and militias known as the "axis of resistance.” These include militias in Syria and Iraq that target American positions, as well as Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which engages in rocket fires with the Israeli military along the southern Lebanese border.
The Iranian authorities also attempted to enhance relations with longstanding adversaries, such as Saudi Arabia, and strengthen connections with Russia and China.
On the contrary, during Raisi's leadership, ties with the West worsened: Iran-linked forces increasingly targeted American interests in the region, and there was an escalation of clashes between Israel and Hezbollah along the Lebanon-Israel border.
Raisi pledged to fight corruption on the economic frontier, develop one million affordable housing units, create one million jobs, and cut inflation. He made little headway on those aims as they were hindered to a great extent by strict US sanctions, as well as mismanagement.
- The government managed to reduce the inflation to 35% by February 2024, the lowest level in two years, although it fell short of Raisi's objective of 30%.
- In 2024, the Iranian population faced challenges coping with soaring costs, a weakened currency, increased unemployment rates, and reductions in government-provided social welfare programs.

Impact on Political Situation

While the president of Iran may have some influence in shaping policies, the trustworthy source of power lies with the Supreme Leader, who exercises control over the judiciary, foreign policy, and elections.
Raisi's lack of popularity, stemming from his history of repression and the worsening living conditions of ordinary Iranians, has contributed to the weakening of the government's legitimacy. This could potentially impact the forthcoming presidential election.
Experts argue that Iran’s political future will also be determined by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC), which has grown its power and visibility in recent years.
Iran currently holds a strong position in the region. This is primarily due to the Israel-Hamas war, which has caused disruptions in the Israeli-Saudi normalization process. As a result, there has been an increase in anti-US and anti-Israel sentiment across the region, among other consequences.

Impact on Iran’s Foreign Policy

The Situation within the Country: Some experts say that Raisi's demise is improbable in influencing the regime's foreign policy, as this responsibility primarily lies with the Supreme Leader.
- The Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) oversees foreign policy and national security. The president can set the agenda and influence discussions as council chair. The president must still reach an accord with 11 other permanent members with high-ranking military, political, or ministerial responsibilities. Finally, the supreme leader must approve SNSC decisions.
- Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani was the interim foreign minister until a new government was elected. His portfolio includes negotiating Iran's nuclear program, which will remain a crucial aspect of the country's foreign policy agenda.
  - Under Raisi, Bagheri Kani led nuclear negotiations but criticized the 2015 nuclear deal. Bagheri Kani reportedly undertook indirect conversations with Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, in mid-May 2024 to de-escalate regional tensions. Unfortunately, the helicopter crash canceled Bagheri Kani's May 22 meeting with EU officials.
International Relations: On an international scale, Iran is now involved in a contentious regional dispute with Israel and a prolonged battle with the US regarding its nuclear program. Some experts fear that lack of clarity on Iran's domestic politics, given the nuclear situation, increases the risk of a direct clash between Iran and the US or Israel.
- In April, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles as a response to Israel's assassination of an Iranian military officer in Damascus, Syria, which had occurred earlier in the same month. This marked the first instance of Iran launching an attack on Israeli territory on its own.
  - Iran's clash with Israel usually occurs through affiliated non-state entities within its "axis of resistance" in the Middle East. It seems improbable that such international efforts will undergo significant changes in the near future after Raisi's demise.
- On the other hand, this transition period, in which the Iranian government's primary focus will probably be to reduce the chances of significant change or disruption, could offer the international community and the U.S.A. an opportunity to improve relations with Iran, especially regarding its nuclear initiatives.

Future Speculations

Even though it might have seemed like the president's sudden death would cause more political unrest in Iran, the truth is that Raisi's role was only to serve the government. The regime's strength and power were not dependent on Raisi's presidency and so were not affected by his death.

Although there is significant public dissatisfaction with the regime and concern regarding its political future, the country's top leaders are dedicated to achieving a seamless transition that aligns with Khamenei's views.
It is interesting to note the celebrations sparked by Raisi’s demise; these celebrations symbolize dissatisfaction with the regime, which will be challenging to repair without substantially altering the regime's governance framework. Iranian activists are now demanding justice for the widespread human rights abuses that occurred during his presidency.
Raisi's demise could potentially create an opportunity for the revival of the protest movement despite the potential for a renewed suppression of civil society. Regardless of the future's outcome, it is imperative for the international community to steadfastly back the Iranian people in their ongoing struggle for freedom and democracy.

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