Climate Change Policies and India’s Road to Net-Zero

16 Oct 2024

As we move further into the 21^st century, one major issue stands out more than any other is climate change. What used to seem like a problem for the future is now visible in our daily lives, with signs like extreme weather, rising sea levels, and changes in ecosystems. It’s more important than ever to tackle this crisis head-on.

Recent reports by a US-based research organization highlighted the alarming impact of climate change in India. From June to August 2024, the country experienced its second-hottest season since 1970, with cities like Thiruvananthapuram, Mumbai, and Thane enduring over 70 days of high temperatures.

In this blog we will explore climate change, its causes and impact, global efforts to counter it and key policies for India’s road to net-zero, assess their effectiveness, and analyze the challenges the country faces in its path to a greener future.

Understanding Climate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns, wind patterns, and other aspects of the Earth's climate system. Such shifts can be natural or human-driven. It poses significant challenges to both natural ecosystems and human societies. Climate change affects health, food production, housing, safety, and work, with some populations more vulnerable, such as those in small island nations and developing countries.

For instance, island nation Tuvalu has an average elevation of less than 10 feet above sea level, while Kiribati, with its highest point at just 3 meters, is projected to be the first to be submerged by rising seas. The Maldives is also facing significant climate change impacts. Other regions, such as Caribbean and Pacific islands, share similar vulnerabilities.

Causes of Climate Change

Natural Causes

Volcanic eruptions significantly impact climate by releasing ash and gasses into the atmosphere, which can block sunlight and cause temporary cooling. For example, the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo (Philippines) emitted millions of tons of sulfur dioxide, resulting in a global temperature drop of about 0.5°C for a few years. However, volcanic activity can also contribute to long-term warming due to the release of greenhouse gasses (GHG) like carbon dioxide.

The Sun's energy is fundamental to Earth's climate, and fluctuations in solar radiation can significantly impact global temperatures. These fluctuations occur due to various factors, including sunspot cycles- periodic increases and decreases in solar activity. During periods of high solar activity, more energy reaches Earth, potentially leading to warming. Conversely, during periods of low activity, such as the Maunder Minimum in the 17^th century, the planet can experience cooler temperatures.

Tectonic shifts also play a crucial role in climate patterns. The movement of tectonic plates can alter the geography of continents and oceans, affecting ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. For example, the uplift of the Himalayas millions of years ago not only influenced regional climates but also contributed to the development of the monsoon system in South Asia. Over geological timescales, these shifts can lead to significant climate changes, such as the transition from a greenhouse to an icehouse Earth.

The Milankovitch cycles describe changes in Earth's orbit and axial tilt, which play a crucial role in driving glacial and interglacial periods. These cycles affect the distribution of sunlight across the planet, influencing seasonal temperatures and climate patterns over tens of thousands of years. For example, when Earth receives more solar radiation during Northern Hemisphere summers, conditions become favorable for warming and glacier retreat.

Anthropogenic Causes

Fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and gas, are the largest contributors to climate change, accounting for over 75% of GHG emissions and nearly 90% of carbon dioxide emissions. While most electricity is still generated from these sources, over a quarter now comes from cleaner, renewable energy like wind and solar.

Residential and commercial buildings account for over half of global electricity consumption and contribute significantly to GHG emissions by using coal, oil, and natural gas for heating and cooling. Rising demand for air conditioning and appliances has increased carbon dioxide emissions from this sector.

Transportation, largely powered by fossil fuels, accounts for about 20% of GHG emissions, with road transportation accounting for three-quarters of this share, while aviation and maritime transportation account for 11% each. Fossil fuels account for 95% of the world's transportation energy.

Deforestation, primarily for agriculture and land use changes, releases stored carbon and reduces forests' capacity to absorb carbon dioxide. Deforestation contributes 12-20% of GHG emissions, while forest degradation, agriculture, and other land use changes account for about 25% of GHG emissions.

Each year, around 12 million hectares of forests are lost, further intensifying climate change. Due to deforestation and degradation, some tropical forests, like the south-eastern Amazon forests, now emit more carbon than they absorb, shifting from carbon sinks to carbon sources.

Manufacturing, industry, and food production are major sources of GHG emissions, significantly contributing to climate change. Sectors like cement, steel, electronics, and plastics rely on fossil fuels for energy, while agriculture leads to deforestation, methane from livestock, and fertilizer use, all exacerbating GHG emissions.

Household activities, including energy use, transportation, and waste, also play a crucial role, with the wealthiest 1% of the global population responsible for emitting more GHGs than the poorest 50%, highlighting the significant impact of lifestyle choices on climate change.

Impact of Climate Change

Natural Impact

Rising Temperatures

Global temperatures are on the rise as a result of increasing GHGs concentrations, with the last decade being the hottest recorded. This has resulted in more frequent heat waves, a rise in heat-related illnesses, rapid spreading of wildfires in hotter conditions and Arctic temperatures have warmed at least twice as fast as the global average.

India's annual mean temperature in 2021 was +0.44°C above the 1981–2010 average, making it the 5th warmest year since 1901 and India experienced its hottest August and September on record in 2023, spanning 122 years.

Intensified Storms and Drought

Climate change has intensified the frequency and severity of storms. Warmer temperatures lead to more moisture evaporation, resulting in extreme rainfall and flooding and increases the destructiveness of tropical storms, including cyclones and hurricanes, causing significant human and economic losses.

India has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in recent years, while also witnessing a 57% expansion in drought-prone areas since 1997. From 2020 to 2022, nearly two-thirds of the country faced the impacts of drought, highlighting the dual threat of extreme weather events and prolonged dry spells.

Changes in Ocean Acidity and Level

The ocean absorbs most of the heat from global warming, causing rising sea levels and increased ocean acidity, which threatens marine ecosystems and coastal communities. The global average sea level has risen by about 21 centimeters since 1900.

Loss of Biodiversity

Climate change is accelerating species extinction at rates 1,000 times higher than historical norms. One million species are at risk, driven by threats such as extreme weather and habitat loss. India's coral reefs, covering about 5,790 sq km, face multiple threats due to climate change.

Social Impact

Food Security Threats

Changes in climate and extreme weather contribute to rising hunger and malnutrition. Fisheries and agriculture are increasingly affected, jeopardizing food supplies and increasing food insecurity. A World Bank study has found that climate change has reduced rice yields in India by 6%.

Health Risks

Climate change poses significant health threats, including increased air pollution, disease spread, and mental health challenges. It is linked to approximately 13 million deaths annually due to environmental factors. According to a World Bank report, child stunting is projected to increase by 35% by 2050 due to climate change. Malaria, vector-borne diseases, and diarrheal infections are likely to spread into new areas as temperatures rise.

Poverty and Displacement

Climate change exacerbates poverty, with natural disasters displacing millions and destroying livelihoods. An average of 23.1 million people are displaced each year by weather-related events, primarily from vulnerable regions.

According to the "State of India's Environment-2022" report, India is the fourth worst-hit country in the world when it comes to climate change-induced migration, with more than three million people forced to leave their homes in 2020-2021.

Global Efforts to Counter Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

IPCC was founded in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to address global warming issues at the governmental level.

It compiles scientific knowledge on climate change, complementing the international discussions held during the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Rio Earth Summit, 1992

This summit led to the signing of the UNFCCC by 166 countries, recognizing humanity's role in climate change. It also established the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention to Combat Desertification. The summit introduced sustainable development's three pillars: economic, social, and environmental, and set the stage for subsequent COP meetings.

Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997 at COP3, came into effect in 2005, with developed countries leading emissions reduction efforts. The "Marrakesh Accords" were adopted at COP7 in 2001 to detail implementation. Phase 1 (2005–12) aimed for a 5% emissions cut, and Phase 2 (2013–20) targeted an 18% reduction by industrialized countries. It follows the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities" (CBDR), assigning greater responsibility to developed nations due to their historical emissions.

Cancun Climate Change Conference, 2010

At COP 16 of UNFCCC held in Cancun, Mexico, parties agreed to establish the Green Climate Fund, aimed at providing USD 100 billion annually from 2020 to assist developing countries in addressing climate change and deforestation.

Paris Agreement, 2015

At COP 21 in Paris (2015), countries committed to limit global warming to "well below" 2°C, aiming for 1.5°C by 2100, with developed nations expected to support developing countries financially and technologically.

COP24 in Katowice (2018) established a "rulebook" to implement the Paris Agreement, focusing on climate finance and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). At COP26 in Glasgow (2021), nations aimed for a 1.5°C limit, with 140 countries pledging net-zero emissions and over 100 committing to end deforestation and reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030.

REDD and REDD+

These are climate change mitigation solutions developed by Parties to the UNFCCC. REDD stands for "Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries".

REDD+ includes REDD, plus additional activities to protect the climate, such as: sustainable forest management, conservation of forest carbon stocks, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. Commonly known as the Warsaw Framework for REDD+, it was adopted at COP 19 in 2013 and provides comprehensive methodological and financial guidance for implementing REDD+ activities.

India’s Current Energy Landscape

India's energy landscape is predominantly fossil fuel-based, with around 59% of its installed power generation capacity derived from these sources. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that India will contribute 25% of the global energy demand increase from 2020 to 2040.

The think tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) study suggests that the country’s power capacity needs to maintain an annual growth rate of 7% between now and 2050 for the sector to achieve the net-zero target.

India’s Path to Net Zero Emission

Net zero emissions refer to a situation where the amount of greenhouse gasses released is balanced with those taken out. By 2070. India, home to 1.4 billion people, has set an ambitious target to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070, following its pledge at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021. Notably, this move is indispensable since India has become the third largest GHG emitter globally despite India's per capita carbon emissions being one of the lowest in the world.

Achieving this goal requires robust partnerships, innovative technologies, and substantial financial investment. India has taken several steps to achieve this goal such as the National Action Plan on Climate Change and Panchamitra action plan in COP26 Glasgow Summit.

National Action Plan on Climate Change: It aims to raise awareness among the public, government agencies, scientists, industry, and communities about climate change threats and countermeasures.

It comprises of following 8 national missions:

National Solar Mission
National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
National Water Mission
National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
National Mission for a Green India
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change

COP26 Commitments: At the Glasgow Summit, India pledged to cut emissions to net zero by 2070, outlining a five-pronged "Panchamitra" climate action plan:

Achieve 500 GW of non-fossil energy capacity by 2030.
Source 50% of energy requirements from renewable sources by 2030.
Reduce projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030.
Lower carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.
Reach net-zero emissions by 2070.

Progress Made So Far

Decarbonizing the Energy Sector: Decarbonizing the energy sector involves key initiatives such as prioritizing domestic production of photovoltaic modules through the

Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme: It is vital for India's decarbonization by promoting domestic manufacturing of green technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles. It reduces import dependency, enhances energy security, and lowers carbon emissions while fostering job creation and innovation. Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha Evam Utthan Mahabhiyaan (PM-KUSUM) scheme offers subsidies for farmers to install solar irrigation pumps.

Green Hydrogen Production: India is focusing on hydrogen as a critical element for decarbonizing energy-intensive industries and transportation. Under the National Green Hydrogen Mission, the country aspires to become a global hub for green hydrogen production, usage, and export, although this initiative is still in its nascent stages.

Carbon Credits Market: The government has made efforts in making the carbon credits market more inclusive, allowing non-obligated companies to voluntarily participate in carbon reduction efforts, thereby enhancing overall emissions management.

Promotion of Electric Vehicles (EVs): To make EVs financially viable, the GOI has introduced a Battery Swapping Policy and a PLI scheme for Advanced Chemistry Cells (ACC), targeting the reduction of battery costs, which constitute about 40% of vehicle expenses.

Carbon Sequestration Efforts: To enhance carbon sequestration through natural sinks, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (MoEFCC) plans to establish up to 1,000 Nagar Vans (urban forests) across India under the Nagar Van Yojana.

Renewable Energy Capacity Growth: India's installed renewable energy capacity has increased by 165% over the past decade, rising from 76.38 GW in 2014 to 203.1 GW in 2024 and ranks fourth globally in renewable energy capacity.

Challenges for India in Achieving Net-Zero Emissions by 2070

High Dependence on Fossil Fuels: India continues to rely heavily on coal and other fossil fuels which contribute around 40% of the nation's emissions. Coal contributed 65% of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions and 72% of electricity generation in 2021.

Insufficient Renewable Energy Capacity: India's renewable energy capacity must rise to over 7,400 GW by 2070 from 203.1 GW in 2024 to meet net-zero targets.

Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles (EVs): The slow development of EV infrastructure, particularly the shortage of public charging stations hinders widespread EV adoption. Additionally, the high costs of establishing and maintaining charging networks exacerbate the problem.

Agricultural and Industrial Emissions: Agricultural activities contribute approximately 45% of methane and 80% of nitrous oxide emissions. Industries such as cement, steel, and chemicals are significant greenhouse gas emitters, with over 40% of their emissions stemming from fossil fuel use. Achieving deep decarbonization in these sectors is challenging due to high costs and technological limitations.

Capital Expenditure and Policy Implementation: The transition to a greener economy necessitates substantial capital investments, which can create friction in policy implementation. Initiatives like the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme have encountered various challenges, affecting their effectiveness.

Slow Deployment of Carbon Capture Technologies: The rollout of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technologies has been slower than anticipated, with many projects in the cement and steel sectors still in the pilot phase. This delay limits the potential for significant reductions in industrial emissions.

Consumerism and Population Growth: As the world’s most populous country, India faces increased consumerism, leading to higher energy demands. Balancing economic growth with sustainable practices is crucial yet challenging.

Road Map for India to Achieve Net-zero Target

India's journey towards net-zero emissions requires a comprehensive approach involving various sectors and stakeholders. By enhancing carbon sequestration through afforestation, adopting sustainable agricultural practices and missions such as National Mission for Green India (GIM), India can offset its carbon footprint.

Strengthening disaster management systems, improving early warning capabilities, and investing in climate-proof infrastructure, such as the National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project, will help build climate resilience.

The push for green transportation, exemplified by the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme, is essential for reducing emissions, while climate-smart agriculture practices, such as organic farming, agroforestry and precision agriculture are encouraged by the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana (PMKSY).

International collaboration is crucial for accessing clean technologies, securing climate finance, and sharing best practices with other developing nations through platforms like the International Solar Alliance.

Strong policy support, infrastructure improvement, and technological innovation are essential to facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy. The Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi provides financial support to small and marginal farmers, encouraging them to adopt sustainable farming practices.

India can also learn from successful initiatives in other countries, such as China's extensive investments in renewable energy and Germany's leadership in energy efficiency. By implementing these strategies and drawing inspiration from global best practices, India can achieve its net-zero target and contribute to a sustainable future.

Conclusion

Addressing climate change necessitates a coordinated global effort, with nations adopting tailored sustainable practices. India's goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 is ambitious, given its energy demands and developmental priorities. By utilizing renewable energy, enhancing carbon sequestration, and embracing technological innovation, India can facilitate a green transition. However, success depends on robust policy support, international collaboration, and significant investment in sustainable infrastructure and clean technologies. Balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility is essential for a resilient and sustainable future.

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